I’m still saying “Depression
Comments (0) August 10, 2010
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Category: The Economy
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I’ve writing of this since last May
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Transcript:
We have just ended an online video conference to brief investors on major events that could forever change your future. We made nine new predictions to pinpoint, as accurately as possible, how and when that future is likely to unfold. We showed how to build — or rebuild — an entire portfolio with a disciplined approach that gives you the specific percentages to put into each major asset class right now — stocks, gold, commodities, bonds, and currencies. And unlike any of our prior events, we took questions from a live audience. Here’s the transcript … Nine Shocking New Predictions for 2010-2012 Martin Weiss: The forecasts we made last year are striking at an accelerating pace, as three new and dangerous crises have raised their heads: First, the White House has announced federal deficits that are far worse than any prior estimates — $1.6 trillion for 2010 … $1.3 trillion for 2011 … and continuing massive deficits for the entire decade. This is already sending shock waves of fear throughout the globe. It has prompted Moody’s to issue a stern warning about America’s credit rating. And it’s raising the specter of a global collapse in long-term sovereign debt. In a moment, we’ll take a look at the enormous implications this has for your finances and investments. Second, global investors are attacking. They’re scanning the globe for the weakest links — the countries with the biggest deficits — and they’re dumping that country’s assets. First, they attacked Greece. Then they attacked Portugal and Spain. Inevitably, they will also unleash their fury on the one country in the world with the biggest deficits of all: The United States of America. And in a moment, we’ll see how these attacks now threaten every dollar you have saved and invested. Third, we have an unprecedented crisis of confidence among U.S. taxpayers and investors. For the first time in our lives, millions of U.S. citizens are taking to the streets in protest — openly rebelling against Washington! Millions of Americans are fed up with bungling politicians, bureaucrats, and bankers. Investors are saying: “You tricked me once — into buying tech stocks with no earnings; those stocks crashed and cost me a bundle. You tricked me twice — into buying real estate and that cost me even more. “Now, I’m madder than hell and I will never trust Washington or Wall Street ever again! I must have an objective scientific, unbiased way to protect myself and make money.” So, the questions we must address now are twofold:
For the answers, I turn to the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, a nonprofit research think tank, founded 70 years ago in the wake of the Great Depression. This Foundation was sponsored by the head of the Smithsonian Institute, by the chairman of the Carnegie Institution, by the founder of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and by the founder of Fidelity Investments. Former President Hoover and former Vice President Charles Gates Dawes also supported the Foundation. Since 1940, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles has studied the recurring patterns of history — cycles. Since 1950, it has identified cycles that predicted — well ahead of time — nearly all major market turns in stocks, bonds, and commodities. And since 1971, when the gold standard and fixed exchange rates ended, it has done the same for foreign currencies and gold. Joining us today is Richard Mogey, Research Director of the Foundation.
Richard, you are the Research Director of the Foundation and have been with them for many years. Richard Mogey: Twenty-two years! Our research is based on the simple fundamental principle that all of nature — and most of history — is driven by regular cyclical patterns. Martin: But identifying those cycles is not so simple. Richard: No. We have sorted through historic data going back 5,000 years, and we have put together data series on most major markets going back at least 300 years. Martin: And back in the 1960s, long before Microsoft and PCs, you used Fortran programs on mainframe computers to find the most critical cycles for each major market — all of which you’ve published, starting a half century ago. Richard: Yes. And you asked me recently how accurate the Foundation’s cycles have been in forecasting stocks, gold, etc. Martin: But to answer that question, you didn’t have to recreate hypothetical scenarios or engage in 20/20 hindsight. Richard: No. I just went back to the archives of our printed publications. They were all published in real time. I have them right here. Martin: Great. So what’s your answer? Richard: The Foundation’s cycles have accurately identified nearly every major shift in market direction … in every one of these asset classes … in advance … since 1971.
Martin: We’ll look at those in a moment. But right now, let’s focus on the main questions readers are asking on our blogs: What are the major market turns ahead? And how can investors build a sturdy portfolio designed to convert those market turns into wealth? Richard: I will answer the first question. But I am a scientist — not an investment analyst. So I’m not the right person to answer the second question. Martin: Which is why I’ve also invited Monty Agarwal to join us. Monty has run three global hedge funds, and he has done so without a single losing year. He has just written a book on what the hedge funds have done wrong — and what they must do to get it right.
Monty Agarwal: Martin, the key is to buy the right market research. And of all the Doubting Thomases in the world, I am probably one of the most skeptical. I always conduct my own personal due diligence before I buy anything. You’ve asked me to analyze the Foundation’s research, and I’ve done so with great interest. The Foundation’s accuracy rate is far superior to any other approach I’ve ever seen. Its work is not perfect, of course. There are a few misses. But the Foundation’s cycles pinpointed, well ahead of time, the onset of the giant bull market that began in 1980. Martin: You’re talking about the stock market.
Monty: Yes. The Foundation predicted the timing of the Crash of ‘87. It predicted the timing of the bear market of 2000-2002. It predicted the market’s rise through 2007. And it nailed the top of the market prior to the big plunge in 2008 … Richard: which, by the way, was a market call we published in Barron’s online. Martin: Is this the Barron’s article where you called the big plunge in 2008? Richard: Yes. Monty: Not many people caught that decline, let alone to the month. Plus, in March of 2009, the Foundation’s cycle work anticipated an intermediate rally. Prediction #1 Richard: And now, we have a new signal. Most U.S. stocks are likely to go down. And they are likely to fall — in a zigzag pattern — for nearly three long years. Monty: In the past, almost every recession and bear market in this country delivered solid values to investors. We saw price-earnings ratios (P/Es) in single digits. We saw great stocks selling for five or six times earnings. But this time, the government was so panicked, it never let that happen. And now P/Es are already back up again to grossly overvalued levels. Richard, you’re talking about giant swings. For a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, those swings are a disaster. But with a more flexible strategy, they can generate giant profit opportunities — in both directions. Martin: Can you be more specific? Monty: Go back 10 years and assume you had been following the Foundation’s cycle research before 2000. You could have sidestepped the Tech Wreck that destroyed so much wealth. Plus, you could have pulled out a 37 percent profit from that decline. Then, if you followed its research in 2003, you could have moved back into the S&P and come out with a 146 percent gain from 2003 to 2009. Martin: What about more recent years? Monty: Same pattern. If you had used its research published before 2008, instead of the wipe-out losses that most investors suffered, my data indicates you could have made a 37 percent profit. And in 2009, based on the Foundation’s call for an intermediate rally, you could have made another 42 percent profit. Martin: And going forward? Monty: Do not expect a similar pattern. Martin: Why not? Richard: Because if our cycle work is even halfway right, conditions will change, and investors could make as much — or more — money in other asset classes. Martin: Instead of stocks? Richard: Gold! Never before in the history of civilization have we seen a world power like the United States with its finances in such disarray as they are now. Martin: We’ve seen world powers rise and fall — from Rome to Spain to Britain. And we’ve seen them incur big debts after their decline. Richard: Yes, but now we have a country that is both the dominant world power and the world’s largest debtor at the same time. This is a massive force that could propel the price of gold. Martin: When and how far? Prediction #2 Richard: By the third or fourth quarter of 2011, the price of gold should be far higher than $2,000 per ounce. Martin: Why is this so shocking? Richard: Because it’s going to happen in the midst of a sinking stock market and economy. Monty: I don’t think that should come as such a surprise, either. In the last few years, despite two big stock market declines and despite the worst recession since the Great Depression, gold quadrupled in value. No one knows for sure what the future will bring. But I would take the Foundation’s gold forecast very seriously. Its cycle work predicted the great bull market in gold of the 1970s. It predicted gold’s downturn starting in the 1980s. And it would have got you back into gold in 2001 … urging you to hold on ever since. Richard: This has been — and should continue to be — one of the greatest profit opportunities of all time. Martin: We have a question on this that’s very relevant … Audience: My name is Elizabeth and I am from Fort Lauderdale. My question is: Much has been talked about gold, but what is your opinion on investing in silver? Richard: In terms of timing, it never ceases to amaze us how closely all precious metals track gold — not only silver, but also platinum and palladium. The differences are strictly an issue of how far each metal rises or falls. Between now and 2012, there will be periods when silver and other metals do better than gold. But when all is said and done, you will find that gold is, by far, the single best performer because of its value as a hedge against the dollar. Martin: What’s behind this cycle in gold? Richard: It parallels the cycles in the U.S. dollar. And for the dollar — or for proxies of the dollar — we have cyclical data going all the way back to 1680.
Martin: Before the dollar even existed! Monty: I have scrutinized the Foundation’s dollar research just as closely as its stock market research. Its cycles predicted the dollar’s plunge from 1971 to 1980 … the dollar’s surge peaking in 1985 … the dollar’s decline bottoming in 1992 … the dollar’s rally through 2001 … and then, the big plunge since. Richard: And now, the dominant cycle in the dollar is forecasting the next major move. Prediction #3 Richard: A major, new dollar decline, beginning in the third quarter of 2010 and ending in early 2012. Monty: Currencies are not a beauty contest. They’re an ugly contest. And among many ugly currencies, the dollar usually wins the prize — as the ugliest. Richard: The real decline in the dollar — and all currencies — will show up more clearly in the doubling of the value of gold we just talked about. Measured against gold, the dollar’s purchasing power will fall by half or more, depending, of course, on the intensity of the global selling that hits the greenback. Martin: What about oil and other commodities? Prediction #4 Richard: Oil will not return to its all-time highs. Unlike gold, it is driven less by currency disasters and more by consumer or industrial demand. And we simply do not see high demand being sustained through this period. Martin: So it would be a mistake to overinvest in commodities right now. Monty: I agree. Martin: Most commodities won’t surge because … Prediction #5 Richard: Because the U.S. economy will sink into another recession. Martin: Similar to the recession of 2009? Richard: Probably worse! Martin: Again, the timing question: When? Richard: Not right away. Our cyclical data on GDP and on consumption points to a material improvement in the U.S. economy through the first two quarters of 2010. But starting in the second half of 2010, GDP growth will start to sink fast and we could see negative growth by the beginning of 2011. The worst period for the economy will hit in the fourth quarter of 2012.
Monty: You don’t have to look very far to see the reasons: You have unemployment holding at extremely high levels. You have scarce capital, with lending to households and corporations drying up. You have consumers, businesses, and now even governments strapped for cash. Martin: That’s an understatement! Look at what’s happening in Greece, Spain, Portugal, and even the UK — and that was despite all the stimulus and bailouts … Monty: No! Because of all the money they’ve spent on bailouts! Martin: Right. Monty: Remember. These are no longer just private banks or automakers going under. They are entire countries! Martin: Plus, you don’t have to connect many dots to see the consequences of a recession. Right now, the Obama administration says the 2010 federal deficit will be $1.6 TRILLION. Care to guess what the government forecast was for this same deficit back in 2008? Monty: A lot less, I presume. Martin: Mike Larson looked back at the forecast made by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) just two years ago, in 2008. The CBO predicted that the U.S. deficit for this year — for 2010 — would be $249 billion. Now, it’s coming in at $1.6 TRILLION, or over six times more than they forecast. Monty: They didn’t expect the deep recession that struck in 2009. Martin: Much like they’re not expecting a double-dip recession to strike next year! My point is that, just like their forecast was dead wrong for this year, it could be dead wrong again in coming years. Prediction #6 Look at 2012! For that year, the Obama administration is making some aggressively optimistic assumptions for the U.S. economy and forecasting a deficit of $828 billion. Instead, with the economy sinking, it could be over $2 TRILLION! Monty: Some people may think these huge blunders merely reflect the government’s forecasting errors. But it’s much more than that. Politicians know they’re rigging the numbers. And they’re swearing on a stack of Bibles that it’s an honest estimate. Prediction #7 No matter what, the big risk is that global investors will sell U.S. dollars wholesale. And they can’t sell them in a vacuum. Along with the dollars, they also have to sell the assets where they’re holding the dollars — especially long-term Treasury bonds. So you could see a massive plunge in bond prices. Martin: Translate that into bond yields. Monty: You’ll see a major spike upward in yields. That could give investors a huge buying opportunity to lock in those higher yields for years to come — provided, of course, price inflation does not run rampant and the U.S. government is still a safe bet at that time. Richard: The U.S. government — and, indeed, America — faces a great historic test: A test of our power — and our willpower — as a nation. Martin: Please explain what you mean by that with respect to cycles. Prediction #8 Richard: The great test for our country — an Armageddon of sorts — will come in the year of maximum turmoil in the financial markets, the time of peak tension in society: 2012. Martin: I assume this has nothing to do with the movie by that name, based on ancient forecasts. Richard: Of course not! We’ve had 2012 pegged as the year of the “Perfect Storm” since 2002. Martin: What’s the basis of the perfect storm? Richard: A convergence of cycles! We have the dollar cycle, stock market cycles, consumption cycles, and GDP cycles all bottoming in this same approximate time frame — between late 2011 and late 2012. Plus, 2012 is also smack dab in the middle of a sweeping transition already under way in our longest term and probably most important cycle of all. Martin: Which is? Richard: The 500-year geopolitical cycle. We’ve mapped it all the way back to 670 BC. It is a broad, far-reaching shift in power, wealth, and money — from East to West, or, as is the case now, from West to East. Martin: We’ve talked about that before. Prediction #9 Richard: Yes, but I want to add that we’re not only talking about a power shift from West to East. We’re also talking about a major wealth shift from old fortunes that are destroyed to new ones that are created … from countries, companies, and families that were dominant for many decades to new ones that replace them on the other side of this massive upheaval! Martin: Provided they are well prepared ahead of time. Monty: And provided they use reliable signals with prudent risk control. No matter what you invest in or how you invest, the real possibility of losses is something you always have to be aware of. Martin: Yes! On our blog, though, many readers tell us they make decisions largely based on gut, which implies not only analysis, but also intuition — and emotion. They admit that, more often than not, that’s their basis for deciding how much to invest in each asset class and when. What would be your standard allocation to those five asset classes, based on your analysis of the Foundation’s work? Step 1 Step number one is to diversify across all FIVE asset classes — stocks, precious metals, other natural resources, bonds, and currencies. Martin: Years ago, it would have been virtually impossible for the average investor to do that. You’d need a lot of money or you’d have to take a lot of risk — with futures, in the currency markets. Monty: Today, all five of these asset classes are readily available to average investors through hundreds of exchange traded funds — ETFs. Martin: And, of course, you can also choose from thousands of mutual funds, tens of thousands of individual stocks, hundreds of thousands of bonds. Monty: Yes. But this step alone — diversification — puts you heads and shoulders above investors stuck in stocks or bonds alone. Audience: The subject is diversification. The more I hear that, the more it bothers me. Because that tells me that if I am investing in, say, five different major areas, I will probably have four losses and only one win. Monty: Let me address that by telling you how Wall Street works. Wall Street touts diversification as if it were a panacea. But their notion of diversification is spreading your money among several different U.S. stock sectors. That’s not going to work because nearly all stocks are linked in some way. In a truly diversified portfolio, stocks are just ONE of five asset classes. Martin: Plus, Wall Street still seems to assume we’re back in the 20th Century when bull markets were long in duration and bear markets were short. That’s not the case today. Step 2 Monty: That’s the key to step number two. In today’s era, especially as we head toward 2012, if you want to make money, you must not rely exclusively on up markets. You must also take advantage of down markets. Martin: That also used to be very hard for the average investor to do. You had to sell short. Monty: Not anymore! In every one of the five asset classes, ETFs are readily available whether you want to profit from rising prices or falling prices. You never sell stocks or commodities short. Your goal is strictly to buy them low and sell them high, like any ordinary stock. Step 3 Step number three is to diversify dynamically. Don’t just keep a fixed amount of money in every asset class all the time. Sometimes, you’ll want a lot more; sometimes, a lot less. For example, if the Foundation’s signals say gold is going to greatly outperform stocks and bonds, you may need to double the percentage of the portfolio in gold. Or let’s say we see a major decline coming in long-term bonds. You’ll probably want to clear out of long-term bonds entirely. Step 4 The next step is to periodically rebalance the portfolio. Hypothetically, let’s say you go ahead and double the gold allocation from 10 to 20 percent. Then, let’s say gold itself doubles in value. You could find yourself with 40 percent of your portfolio value in gold. Martin: That’s a good problem to have. Monty: Yes, but you still have to DO something about it! You can’t sit back passively while a major market move — up or down — upsets the balance in your portfolio. That’s where periodic rebalancing comes into play. You sell on strength and you buy on weakness. But you do so intelligently. Not based on a whim. Step 5 Step five is risk protection. Martin: Don’t you get a good measure of risk protection with the broad diversification across the five asset classes and with the portfolio rebalancing? Monty: You do. But for an additional layer of risk protection, you also need stop-loss mechanisms. If you’re wrong about a particular stock, bond, or ETF, you have to set a clear limit on how far you’re willing to be wrong. If it surpasses that limit, you need to get out right away. Plus, let me say one more very important thing: I respond promptly to major market turn signals. And I don’t shift just small amounts of funds. Gradual, incremental shifting is the right thing to do in a conservative, slow-moving model portfolio. But that’s not what I do, especially when I have clear, strong signals like these we’re getting from the Foundation. When I get a major signal, I move, and I do so very quickly. Martin: Assume you used the Foundation’s signals and your five steps for building a portfolio. Please share with us now what the results could have been.
Monty: Let’s say you started at the beginning of 2000 with $100,000. The black line on this chart shows the results you would have achieved simply by buying and holding the S&P. Result: You would have lost $14,000. Martin: And that’s despite tying up your money for 10 years, despite all of Washington’s efforts to save the economy. Monty: Correct. Now, assume you took this one step further. You blindly invested 20 percent in each of the five asset classes we’ve been talking about. No intelligence. No change. That step alone could have transformed a 14 percent loss into a 61 percent gain. Martin: The red line in the chart. Monty: Right. But it’s the green line that I want you to focus on. It shows what happens when we add the intelligence from the Foundation and the simple steps I just talked about. In this scenario, instead of a 14 percent loss, you could have seen a 111 percent gain. While investors in the S&P 500 were losing $14,000, you could have made $111,000. Martin: That’s past. What about the future? Monty: What happens in the next 10 years will inevitably be different from what happened in the last 10 years. That’s all the more reason you must not lock yourself into a blind, fixed allocation that cannot adjust to changing conditions. Martin: Please also show us your analysis going back further in time, including all kinds of market conditions. Monty: Sure. Overall, since 1971, our approach could have multiplied your money more than 25 times over — enough to turn $100,000 into more than $2.5 million. That’s four times better than the S&P 500. Moreover, since 1992, we’re talking about 18 consecutive winning years, in a wide range of conditions — in inflation and deflation, in bear markets and bull markets, during economic booms and busts. All with no debt! No options. No leveraging. Martin: Don’t you like leverage? Monty: I do in other circumstances. But in this program, I assume none whatsoever. If you can achieve relatively rapid and consistent growth without leverage, why be greedy? Martin: I agree. Let’s talk about what we’re doing for viewers. First, to underscore my confidence in this program, I have put my money where my mouth is. We have just deposited $1 million into a brand new brokerage account. This new account will serve as a model portfolio to be dedicated exclusively to following the Foundation’s long-term signals. Second, we have invited Monty and Richard to also invest their own money in their own dedicated accounts — so that both individuals making investment decisions have skin in the game. Third, Weiss Research has entered into an exclusive joint venture with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles for full access to its vast databases and use of its signals. The Foundation’s research helps strips out the emotions involved in investing and, instead, helps you grow your money dynamically and objectively, through thick and thin, using history — not Wall Street or Washington — as your guide. It gives us the confidence to invest fully, broadly, and without hesitation. Fourth, we have hired Monty Agarwal to receive the signals from the Foundation and translate them into specific investment recommendations. He will follow the Foundation’s long-term signals. Plus, he will draw from his experience to diversify across the five asset classes, adjust the allocations, maintain balance, control risk, and choose the specific investments. Most important, we are launching a new service called the Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio. This exclusive publication and website not only lets you track everything happening in my account … but it also gives you the opportunity buy and sell before we do. Of course, you don’t have to invest a million dollars. You could invest any amount you’re comfortable with. Also please understand that this not a money management program. Unlike our affiliate, Weiss Capital Management, we do not customize actual portfolios and advice to meet your individual needs. Rather, we’re investing our own money and will let you see exactly what we do — with total transparency — in our Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio. Every purchase, every sale, and every statement will be promptly posted on our members-only website. Every profit, every loss, every dividend earned, and every commission charged will be an open book to you. Monty: I will buy no penny stocks, illiquid investments, or exotic instruments — just widely traded, mainstream stocks, bonds and ETFs that any investor can put into any account. Therefore, I do not anticipate any issues as to who can get their order in first. Martin: Still, I want to make absolutely sure that if anyone has an advantage, it’s going to be the investor — not us. So, two full business days before we buy or sell, Monty will send you an email telling you precisely what we intend to buy or sell and how. Monty, let’s assume, hypothetically, that you are sending that email out today. What would be the standard amounts you would allocate to each asset class? Monty: I would allocate 30 percent of the money to the asset class “stocks,” with a very substantial allocation to inverse ETFs to profit from a decline in stocks. Martin: What about bonds? Monty: 10 percent, mostly short term. Martin: Gold? Monty: 15 percent. Martin: Energy and other commodities? Monty: Also 15 percent — but carefully selecting the commodities most likely to benefit from growth in major emerging markets. Martin: What else? Monty: The last asset class is currencies. That’s very important and has a very clear long-term trend. I’d bet against the dollar with 30 percent of my money — but not in the euro or any country with oversized deficits. Bear in mind that some major new forces are now ready to hit markets. So these allocations may change pretty significantly when I release them. Audience: With the declining value in the dollar, what are the best currencies to invest in? Monty: The currencies I would pick are the currencies that benefit from the growth in the emerging markets. For example, I like the Aussie dollar and the Canadian dollar. Audience: I understand that the Foundation has a great track record and an impressive history. My question is: Why haven’t we heard of you before? Richard: For 60-plus years, we have been studying cycles without any marketing. We are terrible at marketing. But I think we are great scientists. Martin: Overall, I think benefits of the service are many. But let me summarize the main ones: Cycle signals that could have beaten the S&P 500 four to one, with 18 consecutive winning years through 2009. Plus a hedge fund manager with 12 years of experience and without a single losing year to his name. Thank you very much for joining, and have a great day! Editor’s note: The Charter Enrollment Period for the Million-Dollar Rapid Growth Portfolio ends March 8, after which the membership cost will be significantly higher. Click here for details.
About Money and Markets For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com. From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don’t miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps.
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I’ve been writing about this since last May
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BANK FAILURES AHead
| YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON’T GET FROM WALL STREET |
200 Bank Failures Expected in 2010 Dear Customer,
Washington has so thoroughly botched its supervision of the banking industry that 200 banks are likely to fail this year — easily surpassing last year’s 140 bank failures … inevitably involving the greatest bank losses in history … and already costing the FDIC ten times more than the great S&L and banking crisis of the 1980s did. I am not basing these conclusions on conjecture. They come straight from official sources. Specifically … In her testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Thursday, FDIC Chairman Blair attacked the Fed under Greenspan for causing the housing bubble and subsequent debt crisis with its highly stimulative, low interest rate policy of the 2000s. She slammed virtually all of Washington for allowing banks to establish a huge, high-risk “shadow banking system.” And she made it abundantly clear that, without sweeping, far-reaching reforms, we risk another devastating debt crisis. Each of her conclusions is abundantly obvious and thoroughly documented. What she did not mention, however, are the following equally obvious facts: Obvious fact #1. The Fed under Bernanke is now pursuing an even more stimulative, lower interest rate policy than it did under Greenspan, threatening to create even larger bubbles and more devastating busts … Obvious fact #2. In just the last two years, between bank bailouts and easy money, Washington has done more to encourage the growth of the shadow banking system than in all previous years combined, and … Obvious fact #3. Despite all the talk and testimony, the nation’s powerful banking lobby virtually guarantees that, in the absence of another Wall Street meltdown, the chance of sweeping reforms is virtually nil. So here’s America’s financial dilemma in a nutshell: Without sweeping reforms, the nation is doomed to repeat history with another debt disaster. But without another debt disaster, the nation’s political will for sweeping reforms is dead or dying. In the meantime, the aftershocks of the 2008 debt crisis are getting worse, as the latest news clearly illustrates … 171 actual total failures: In addition to the 140 banks and S&Ls that failed in 2009, 31 credit unions went under, bringing the total tally to 171. Worse than the 1980s: If you’re among those who think today’s banking crisis isn’t nearly as bad as the great S&L and banking crisis of the 1980s, think again. The average bank failing today is six times larger than it was back then, producing far greater losses. Moreover, each bank failure is costing the FDIC about TEN times more than it did in the 1980s crisis, according to the Meridian Group of Seattle. As a result … Worst FDIC losses of all time: The FDIC lost more money in bank failures ($36 billion) than it lost in the ENTIRE five-year banking crisis from 1987 through 1992 ($29.6 billion). And in 2010, with the number of failures likely to increase, the losses will be even larger. Big banks still losing billions with consumers: Until last week, the consensus opinion on Wall Street was that the troubles at the BIG banks were over; that to close this chapter in history, the only task remaining was a mop-up operation at smaller regional and community banks around the country. That theory was shattered on Friday when JPMorgan Chase revealed it was forced to add $1.5 billion to its consumer loan loss reserves. The big problem: When it took over Washington Mutual last year, the biggest failed S&L of all time, it inherited a cesspool of mortgages that are now going bad at an accelerating pace. Other big consumer banks — like Citigroup and Bank of America — likely face similar woes. The trading profits of big investment banks are a bubble: What most Wall Street bank analysts still don’t seem to recognize is that the giant trading profits they’ve been so enthusiastic about are generated by the same low-interest Fed policy that created the housing bubble — and is now in the process of creating MORE bubbles. Without the Fed’s largesse, without the low-cost financing, and without the big risk appetite it generates, most of the big bank trading profits would have been impossible. More to the point: Just as soon as the Fed finally executes an exit plan, the bulk of those profits are likely to turn to losses. What To Do First and foremost, do not let up your guard when it comes to keeping your money safe. Yes, I know. With all the talk of the “end” to the crisis and Treasury bills paying virtually nothing, it’s tempting to venture away from safe harbors. But how much more yield can you get by doing so? If you switch from Treasury bills to bank CDs, for example, the most you can gain is a small fraction of a percent. And if you switch from bank CDs to low-rated corporate debt, the extra yield you get is even less attractive. In sum … At this early stage so soon after the worst debt crisis since the Great Depression, the TRUE RISK of putting your money in higher yielding savings vehicles is still very high. Nevertheless, banks and other borrowers are asking you to take that risk WITHOUT paying you more than pennies for it. My recommendation: Tell them to go fly a kite! For your keep-safe funds, use strictly short-term Treasuries or equivalent. Second, if you do other business with a bank or if you still want to keep some part of your savings in bank CDs … at least be sure to avoid the banks most likely to fail and stick with the ones most likely to survive. (For the latest Weiss Lists of the weakest banks and S&Ls, click here. For the strongest, click here.) Third, bear in mind that, when it comes to your investment decision-making, TIMING is everything. Last year, the stepped-up pace of bank failures did not derail the weak-but-continuing recovery in the U.S. economy. And for now, that’s bound to remain the case. As soon as we see signs that’s about to change, we’ll do our best to alert you. Until then, we stick with our current posture: Continue to invest, but do so with great caution. Good luck and God bless! Martin
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Marci Campbell, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com. From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don’t miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps.
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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010
Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010
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Economy not getting well in 2010
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I’ve been saying “Depression”
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Massive Revolutionary Changes
I’ve just returned from Munich, Germany, where Claus Vogt and I addressed the 8th Annual Conference of Sicheres Geld subscribers. Here are the highlights of my side of the presentation. (Claus will give you his side in a future issue). Massive Revolutionary Changes A few years ago, when we first began this journey together, we warned that the U.S. government was leading us to a future banking panic. We warned about the housing bubble that was about to burst. We told you about the giant monster of derivatives that could someday explode. And we showed you how the U.S. real estate bust and the derivatives monster were likely to strike the largest financial institutions of Wall Street, threatening a meltdown in global financial markets. Then, three years ago, we described the coming crisis in greater detail, naming the large financial institutions we believed were most likely to fail:
Virtually no one believed this was possible. When we gave the story of the Citigroup failure to a reporter of a major business magazine, the editor nixed the story. When we told other banking experts that Citigroup was on the brink of failure, they laughed. When we told government officials, the company executives simply told them we were crazy.
As it turned out, the crisis was not less severe than we expected. Nor was it as severe as expected. Rather, the crisis was actually more severe — for two reasons. First, in addition to the companies that we named as candidates for failure, several other giant companies that we had not named also went bankrupt or required a bailout. The failed Wall Street firms included not only Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers, but also Merrill Lynch. The failed commercial banks included not only Citigroup, but also Bank of America. The bankrupt institutions were not only in the U.S., but also in the U.K., Germany, and even Switzerland — Royal Bank of Scotland; IKB and Hypo Real Estate in Germany; and UBS in Switzerland. They included not only banks and brokerage firms, but also the largest single insurance company in America, AIG. But whether we named them ahead of time or not, the salient fact is that, in nearly every major financial industry — commercial banking, investment banking, consumer banking, brokerage, mortgage lending, and insurance — the companies that failed, or almost failed, were not small- or medium-sized. They weren’t the third largest or fourth largest. They were the single largest in the world. Think about that: The world’s largest companies in every single sector of the financial industry. Failed. Bankrupt. Now, fast-forward to today, November 7, 2009. Suddenly and miraculously, the same economists who told you this crisis could never happen are now telling you that this crisis is “over.” And the same government officials who scoffed at the notion of giant financial failures are claiming they have the final solution to those failures. But the derivatives we warned you about are not gone. They are still there. Nor are the bad debts on the books of major banks. And most important, the government policies which created the crisis in the first place have not been modified or reduced. They have actually been accelerated, as we’ll demonstrate in a moment. And therein lies the second reason the crisis is actually worse than we expected. With its deliberate policies, the U.S. government, along with governments here in Europe, have now transformed the Wall Street debt crisis into the Washington debt crisis. They have transformed a crisis that was bankrupting individual institutions into a crisis that could threaten to bankrupt sovereign governments. Worst of all, they have converted a crisis of debt into a crisis of our currency.
This chart shows the monetary base of the United States. It represents the most basic form of money supply — cash currency in the coffers of U.S. banks plus their total reserves. As long as this basic measure of money supply is growing at a moderate pace, you can generally expect stability in the U.S. dollar, gold, and other markets. There will be ups and downs, of course, and sometimes, due to other global events, those ups and downs could be sharp. But they will not turn the world upside down. Indeed, this had been the pattern since World War II: relatively moderate expansion. Up until September of last year, when Lehman Brothers failed, it took the U.S. Federal Reserve a total of 5,012 days to double this measure. But then, look what happened: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke doubled the U.S. monetary base in 112 days. Not in 5,012 days as his predecessors had done — but in a meager 112 days! He accelerated the pace of bank reserve expansion by a factor of 45 to 1. Imagine a crowded highway with most cars traveling at an average speed of 100 km per hour. Then imagine a new driver appearing on the scene with a jet-powered engine that accelerates to a supersonic speed of 4,500 km per hour. That’s the same magnitude of change Fed Chairman Bernanke has presided over. Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It’s a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy. Even in the most extreme circumstances of history, the Fed never pumped in this much money in such a short period of time. For example, before the turn of the millennium, the Fed was afraid of a computer catastrophe at the banks caused by the widely publicized Y2K bug. So it rushed to provide liquidity to U.S. banks and increased the monetary base by $73 billion in three months. At the time, that was considered huge. But this time, Mr. Bernanke has increased the monetary base by over $1 trillion, or 14 times more!
Here’s another example: In the days following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, the Federal Reserve rushed to flood the banks with liquid funds. That time, it added $40 billion in less than 14 days. However, Mr. Bernanke’s recent trillion-dollar deluge of money is twenty five times larger. Here’s the most astounding fact of all: After the Y2K and 9/11 crises had passed, the Fed promptly reversed its money infusions. It pulled out the extra liquidity from the banking system.
But this time, Mr. Bernanke has done precisely the opposite. Since he doubled the currency and reserves at the nation’s banks with his 112-day money-printing frenzy in late 2008, he has thrown still more money into the pot. And late last month, the monetary base surged to new, all-time highs. Ladies and gentlemen, this is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It’s a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy. This is the elephant in the room — the situation that everyone knows is there, but no one wants to admit. Now, let’s take a look at this same elephant from another perspective — the largest federal budget deficits in the history of mankind. If the U.S. federal deficit were growing by 20 percent, 30 percent, or even as much as 50 percent, the pundits could have argued that it was just the continuation of a long-term trend, that it was simply more of the same.
But just in the last 12 months, the U.S. federal deficit has exploded from $454.8 billion in fiscal 2008 to $1.4 trillion in fiscal 2009. It has tripled in size in just one year’s time. I repeat: This is not just more of the same trend that we have witnessed over the decades. It’s a massive, revolutionary change in the entire structure of the U.S. economy … and it’s totally unprecedented in history. Now let’s turn to the consequences of these events — first, the intended consequences and then some of the unintended consequences. Consequence #1 is a recovery in the U.S. economy. When the government creates that much monetary and fiscal stimulus, it naturally has some impact, of course. That’s why a recovery is now under way and why it is likely to continue for a few more quarters. Consequence #2 is the rally in the U.S. stock market. Again, when so much liquidity is pumped into the economy, it’s only natural that some of it would flow into equities. Consequence #3 is a recovery in emerging markets. Here, unlike the U.S. and other Western economies, not only are the economies benefiting from government stimulus, but they are also benefiting from strong domestic fundamental growth factors. Consequence #4 is the decline of the U.S. dollar. The greenback is falling against the euro and virtually every major currency on the planet, and it will probably continue to do so. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is now nearing its lowest level in history. Once that level breaks, the pace of the dollar’s decline could accelerate sharply. Consequence #5 is the decline in the value of paper money as a whole, and the parallel rise in gold. Friday, gold pierced the $1,100 per-ounce level. Next, despite any intermediate setbacks, it could rise to $1,300. Consequence #6 is rising interest rates. Yes, the Federal Reserve can hold its official short-term interest rates near zero, and this is precisely what it’s doing. But the Fed does not exert the same control over long-term interest rates. Nor can it control foreign central banks, some of which are beginning to raise interest rates. And most important, the U.S. government cannot control foreign investors who now own over half of the publicly traded U.S. government securities. Meanwhile, the forces driving long-term interest rates higher are powerful and enormous — the same forces we told you about earlier: massive monetary inflation and equally massive federal deficits. Consequence #7 is an anemic U.S. economy overall, weighed down by high unemployment, low spending, and most important, the largest debts of all time. Don’t expect this recovery to last very long. A second recession could come quickly on its heels. I am often asked: Is the recession over? My answer is “yes.” Such is the inevitable consequence of the massive, revolutionary changes that have already taken place … with more changes of similar magnitude still ahead. P.S. Our whitelisting instructions have changed! To ensure you don’t miss out on any breaking news or alerts, please take a moment to add the below addresses to your address book. Or click here to see step-by-step whitelisting instructions.
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com. From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don’t miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps.
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I still believe “Depression Ahead”
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Bernake gone berserk! Bank reserves explode!
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The Economy
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Three Government Reports
When our leaders have no awareness of the disastrous consequences of their actions, they can claim ignorance and take no action. Or when our leaders have no hard evidence as to what might happen in the future, they can at least claim uncertainty. But when they have full knowledge of an impending disaster … they have proof of its inevitability in ANY scenario … and they so declare in their official reports … but STILL don’t lift a finger to change course … then they have only one remaining claim: INSANITY! And, unfortunately, that’s precisely the situation we’re in today: Three recently released government reports now point to fiscal doomsday for America; and one of the reports, issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), says so explicitly:
That, dear Subscriber, is the epitome of insanity. Yes, the great government bailouts of 2008 and 2009 have bought us some time … but they have promptly proceeded to sell us into bondage. Yes, they have given us safe passage over tough seas … but only to throw our assets onto the global auction block for the highest bidders. The one bright spot: Unlike some governments, ours does not conceal the evidence of its folly. Quite the contrary, the proof pours forth from these three government reports in relatively blunt language and unmistakably blatant numbers … Report #1
The CBO opens with a chart predicting the most dramatic surge in government debt of all time. It shows that even in proportion to the larger size of the U.S. economy today, the government debt has ALREADY surpassed the massive debt loads accumulated during World War I and the Great Depression … and will soon surpass even the massive debt load of World War II. “Large budget deficits,” write the authors of the CBO report, would …
Worse, on page 14, the CBO warns that:
The magnitude of the problem cannot be underestimated. The CBO declares on page 15 that:
But the CBO admits that even these frightening projections may be grossly understated because:
But none of these are factored into the analysis. On page 17 of its report, the CBO writes … “The analysis … does not incorporate the financial markets’ reactions to a fiscal crisis and the actions that the government would adopt to resolve such a crisis. Because [our] textbook growth model is not forward-looking, the analysis assumes that people will not anticipate the sustainability issues facing the federal budget; as a result, the model predicts only a gradual change in the economy as federal debt rises. “In actuality, the economic effects of rapidly growing debt would probably be much more disorderly as investors’ confidence in the nation’s fiscal solvency began to erode. If foreign investors anticipated an economic crisis, they might significantly reduce their purchases of U.S. securities, causing the exchange value of the dollar to plunge, interest rates to climb, and consumer prices to shoot up.(Bolding is mine.) Report #2
The Fed’s data on page 12 tells it all: The impact on the U.S. credit markets is not just a future scenario. It’s happening right now. Yes, the government is getting its money to finance its exploding deficits (for now). But it’s hogging all the available supplies, while American businesses and average consumers are getting shut out or even shoved out. Specifically …
Meanwhile, the private sector is getting killed …
Never before in my lifetime have I witnessed a more severe case of crowding out in the credit markets! And never before has the CBO been so right in its forecasts of fiscal doomsday: One of its dire forecasts was already coming true even before it issued its report. Report #3
Each and every month, the Treasury reminds us of the single fact that no one in the Treasury wants to face: The U.S. is deep in debt to the rest of the world, and on page 48, it provides the evidence: total liabilities to foreigners of $7,898,435 million (nearly $7.9 trillion)! This isn’t a new record. It was actually slightly more last year. But the fact is NOTHING has been done to reduce our debt to foreigners. Quite the contrary, it is the deliberate policy of our government to pile up more — to sell foreign investors and central banks on the idea that they must continue to lend us money. The fact that this could potentially put our nation into deeper jeopardy is overlooked. And the dire forecast by the CBO that foreign investors might pull the plug is pooh-poohed. Tomorrow at 2 PM, in our online seminar, we’ll tell you why that could be a serious mistake. More importantly, we’ll show you precisely how you can harness these potentially overwhelming forces and even harvest them for profits. If you’re already signed up, great! You should have your login instructions. If not, TODAY is your last day. If you don’t register by midnight tonight, you’ll miss it. Click here. It’s free. And it takes only a few seconds. Good luck and God bless! Martin P.S. If you want to see exactly where I get my quotes and data, just click on the page numbers cited above, and you’ll see the relevant pages I’ve extracted from the government reports with the critical information highlighted in yellow.
For more information and archived issues, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com Money and Markets (MaM) is published by Weiss Research, Inc. and written by Martin D. Weiss along with Nilus Mattive, Claus Vogt, Ron Rowland, Michael Larson and Bryan Rich. To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive. Regular contributors and staff include Kristen Adams, Andrea Baumwald, John Burke, Amy Carlino, Selene Ceballo, Amber Dakar, Dinesh Kalera, Red Morgan, Maryellen Murphy, Jennifer Newman-Amos, Adam Shafer, Julie Trudeau, Jill Umiker, Leslie Underwood and Michelle Zausnig. Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets issues can be republished. Republished issues MUST include attribution of the author(s) and the following short paragraph: This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com. From time to time, Money and Markets may have information from select third-party advertisers known as “external sponsorships.” We cannot guarantee the accuracy of these ads. In addition, these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our terms and conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don’t miss our urgent updates, add Weiss Research to your address book. Just follow these simple steps.
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