Category: Then 1929 and Now 2009-The Great Depression

Recovery? or Depression?

By , August 17, 2012 8:15 pm

August 17, 2012

The Correction is now more than five years old.

We’ve heard “recovery.” But the world economy is nowhere near back to where it was. Industrial output in the U.S., Germany,Canada, France, Sweden, Britain, Belgium, Japan, Hungary, Italy, Spain and Greece is below the levels of 2007. And these world powers are still making it worse by adding more cash and credit. What’s worse is that there is no more cash available and with our Nation, there really is no more credit, simply the printing of dollars. The only reason the dollar has not tanked is the other nations are in worse shape than we are.

I’ve written since 2009 of a plunge that will knock 60% off the Dow… erasing more wealth than the 2008-2009 crises and the Great Depression combined. I wrote in late 2009 of a possible DOW in
the 4900-5500 range. I now believe that it could sink lower. Even if everything I’ve written in my series (1929-2009 – now and then) is wrong, we have already been crushed during these last three years. I will bravely say now that we will have a global depression sometimes between March and October of 2013. A full recovery from this depression will not come until 2025. Keep in mind that our
government is telling us that inflation is about 2%; if that is true why are we paying so much more for milk, bread, eggs, coffee, etc. And how about gas, 134% more.

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XV

By , July 26, 2011 7:04 pm

 

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XV

26 July 2011

The Depression Is Here

I have
not written on this series since last October; I would have loved nothing more
than to be SO WRONG that everyone would laugh at me. For almost two years I
wrote about a forthcoming DEPRESSION that would make the “Great Depression” of
1929 look and feel like a mild recession. Over the last year or so this
administration and the “left-wing” “bias” Obama loving main stream media has
talked down any possibility of a second dip in our recession. {Second
Dip/Recession}? My ass; We are in the beginning of a harsh depression, our
people in Congress known it, our banking system know it and the FED not only
knows it but will take the very steps that couldn’t get us out of the
Recession.

QE3 by
any definition is nothing more than a “bail-out” and will not work any better
than any of the previous bail-outs/stimulus have. In fact the next round of
bail-outs/stimulus or FED manipulation of the interest rates, required reserve
on hand and QE3 quantitative easing will in a very short time move unemployment
levels beyond those of the “Great Depression”. You must of course accept the
possibility that our actually unemployment rate today is in reality somewhere
between 19% and 22%.

Our elected officials (both parties) know what’s
going on, the main news media knows what’s going on, our banking
firms/investment firms know what’s going on and the Federal Reserve Board (and
chairman) certainly know what’s going on. The truth is, they can’t tell you, if
they did, they wouldn’t have a job the next day.

We will soon start
hearing from Washington and the economic experts that though it was a severe
and prolonged recession, yet nowhere near the 25% unemployment rate of the “Great
Depression”. Folks, please understand that the current unemployment rate of 9.2%
is a manipulated number which eliminated about a third of actual unemployed
from the unemployment rolls. The Bureau of Labor statistics drops “marginally
attached to the workforce” and “discouraged worker”, unemployment rate now goes
up to about 10.9%.

If we
now add the “part time” work force (over 15 million) our unemployment rate is
just barely under 15%.

If the “Bureau
of Labor Statistics” provided us with an unemployment rate which used the
formula that counts “long-term unemployed” (as was done prior 1992) the actual unemployment
rate today is as I stated, somewhere between 19%-22%.

The government
defines an unemployment rate of 25% as “Depression”. I have written since the summer
of 2009 (in this series) that we (if in fact not globally) would be in a full
blown depression between October 2011 and the summer of 2012.

And if
I am right, and we are in an unemployment rate of about 22%; then I have to
believe that what “Big Ben” at the Federal Reserve Board does next will
certainly put us in unemployment of 29%-32%.

Is it
just I saying this, who am I, a nobody. I’m not an economist, I have never
worked on Wall Street, I have never represented a banking or investment firm
nor called upon to advise government officials; But, I was born before World
War II ended, A Viet Nam Vet, I was in my 30’s during the gas lines of 73/74, I
survived the hard times of Carter. But most important I served DOD for 42 years
and I learned a lot, I’ve seen and lived the height of waste, the stupidity of
non-accountability and yet at the same time the best that the world had to
offer.

No’’, it is not just I
saying all this. If you never do anything else, do this; immediately stop believing
anything coming out of Washington; or at least, stop believing it without
verification. Start verifying all statistics through TechnoMetrica Market
Intelligence and Shadow Government Statistics. One of them has the unemployment
rate at 28.6% for the second week of July.

I would be amiss if I didn’t comment of the current
on-going fiasco on the “debt limit” discussions. The whole process (both
parties and the White House) is nothing more than a cover so that one side can
blame the other side for the forthcoming Depression.

Next week-I explain my thoughts on why this
depression will be global and set things in motion for global financial
regulations and controls.

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The coming Depression Part XIV

By , October 5, 2010 8:18 pm

05 October 5, 2010Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XIVAbout a week ago (20 Sep) I heard on the news that the recession was over in June 2009. It appears that Wall Street liked hearing that because on 29 September the Markets had the best September in 71 years and today it recovered the week’s losses. I’ve been saying for over a year now that we have not seen the bottom yet; be not deceived by these “good news” on nightly TV. I have said this before and it’s worth repeating, “There is nothing of substance in the market place to indicate that the recession is over or that a recovery is in place”. I am sticking to my prediction that a “great depression” is just around the corner. Your broker, Wall Street, the FED, the bias left-wing media and the present administration CAN NOT and will not tell you the truth because it would create chaos for the political and financial systems. They believe and wrongly so that if they can control inflation and keep pumping billions/trillions into the economy that things will eventually turn around, in essence they are simply buying time. I still believe (I wrote in one of the series some time back) that the odds of a long and prolonged deflationary spiral is within 18 months which will lead to the final crash and keep us in a depression for a long time. Everything this administration has done has been nothing more than delaying the inevitable. The trillions pumped into the economy did nothing to create jobs but rather saved big business (too big to fail), saved or provided relief to the unions and bought worthless assets from financial institutions so they could lend money; ( they aren’t lending). Keeping looking for the deceitful statements coming out of the FED, the Treasury and Wall Street, they will always lower expectations so that when the numbers come out they spin the positive and claim that it’s not as expected, this is especially true of the labor department when dealing with the unemployment numbers. Historically a market will drop at least 40% from its high; if our high is 14,000 a 40% drop would put our DOW at 8400. The 14,000 was too short lived for me to consider it our high; I believe our high to be between 10,000 and 11,000 and a 40% drop would have our DOW at about 6600. I wrote back in June of 2009 that our bottom would come in at between 4700 and 5400. But-JUST HOW FAR DOWN IS DOWN? During the “Great Depression” of 1929 the US Market dropped 89%. You say it cannot happen-our NASDAQ had a loss of 80% as recently as 2002 and it is still down 50-60% of its 2000 high. It can and it will happen to the DJIA and S&P and I still firmly believe that it is around the corner. I started writing this series in June of 2009 and have until now been very careful to only state my opinions, provide some date and share my experiences as to why I believe of a coming depression; however, I now feel I should go a little further. Get out of the Stock Market and stay in T-Bills or T-Bonds, get out of banks and find a local Credit Union you trust. The FDIC had 775 problem banks during mid-2010. The stock market is today at its peak of 1999; that’s right, the stock market first reached the 10,000 mark in March of 1999.

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XIII

By , September 5, 2010 5:16 pm

September 5, 2010Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XIIIWe are living in interesting times with nothing in view short of despair, loss, chaos, fear and upheaval. For most of us hard working Americans we will probably only see these things on the nightly news. The upheaval and violence will be by the left, the labor unions and those whom have always enjoyed government handouts (wealth distribution). Folks, no matter what the Vice-President, the President, the Treasury and the FED say or do; THERE IS NO RECOVERY AHEAD and soon, if not already, they will know this and start looking for “scapegoats” to take the fall or to get the message out. “Why no recovery is in sight and why things will not get back to normal” First and foremost, no one has yet addressed where that “normal” was or what that “normal” was; they have only addressed that we have been in a recession which became a severe and prolonged recession. What they are now calling a possible double-dip is the beginning of a Depression. They have blamed everyone but themselves and arrogantly even blame others when their actions fail. The Government and to some extend many of us are looking for and anticipating a “recovery” from a recession and are even willing to accept some small swing in the right direction leading us to some level of normalcy. The problem is that we are not in a “normal” recession resulting from a cyclic (every 30/60 years) markets adjustment, a bubble bust in one segment of the market or the failure of a corporate giant which would result in great jobs losses; that would be a recession which could lead to a recovery. What we are in is a “grave and severe financial crises” affecting the global financial institutions. I said it before and I’ll say again, “the global financial heartbeat is on life support”. Obama did not create these crises, it’s been in making for about ten years, but Obama is ensuring that there is NO Recovery soon (at least 10 years). Here are main culprits which created this “financial crises” we are in: (1) to much credit for too long, much of that credit also for a life style beyond our means, (2) speculation-greed, not only by Wall Street and financial institutions but by many of us wanting more, and more, and more, (3) the end result of (1) and (2) is debt, and more debt, and more debt and (4) the wisdom of the progressive left to spend yourself out of debt which always results in more spending and more debt until you are spending to pay only the interest on the debt. One of the main problems with this line of thinking is that this wisdom is almost always followed by stupidity. I’m not an economist, a lawyer, advisor, Wall Street Guru and I don’t have a PHD or 39 Master Degrees coming out of my ass; what I am is 66 years old and I have lived “reality”. The reality of going to bed at the end of 1970 having made $9600.00 that year and at the end of 1972 making $15,980.00 but not living as well (they call it inflation), I’ve lived the gas lines of 1973-1974 and I‘ve lived the price of gas go from $.43 a gallon to $1.15 in less than one year, I lived the harsh conditions of the Carter years; all these things are real, not some fancy explanations by Washington. I feel somewhat qualified to call the Obama administration very stupid in their “economic” policies and decisions, here is why: the Obama administration and the FED perceived this recession as a liquidity problem and over the course of the last 18 months pumped 1.8 Trillion into the economy via bailouts, stimulus and purchasing bad assets from the banking sector; that was only the beginning, they haven’t stopped and won’t. When does $1.8 Trillion “liquidity” rescue not work, and IT CERTAINTY HAS NOT WORKED, nobody is spending, banks are not lending and companies are not hiring. A liquidity rescue does not work when the problem was not liquidity. {Short and Simple-the problem was and is DEBT}. And therein is the stupidity that follows the wisdom of the progressive left. History teaches us that Government most times will make things worse; at best they disrupt the process of “market correction”. You don’t pump trillions into the economy and then straddle it with regulations, job killing restrictions and government controlled mandates.

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Now and then//1929,2009//the coming Depression, Part XII

By , August 24, 2010 8:52 pm

August 24, 2010Everything is not alrightNow and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XII Since writing Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression Part XI back in January things have only gotten worse, the lies and outright arrogant dismissal of what the American People want from our Government is appalling at best. I accept that no one President or Congress could possibly fix the economic mess we are in, certainly not in a short 18 months. What is so sad about the “fixes” coming from the Congress and President is the fact all of them have been for giant corporations, Wall Street and the labor unions, EVERY program for the middle class has not only failed but actually benefited the financial institutions. I wouldn’t feel so bad if there was some glimmer of sun light ahead of us; but, there isn’t. DO NOT, DO NOT allow anyone (of either party) tell you that everything is going to be alright. We are headed towards a full blown Depression; I have been saying this since May of 2008. There were many reasons stated throughout the series (all posted) Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression.Here are some more reasons which support my thoughts that there is nothing with substance in our economic health and the Stock Market. (1) Washington is telling us that there is no inflation; actually there is ONLY the appearance that there is no inflation. For one thing, economically, the whole world is on life support-business aren’t spending(except for mergers and investment), consumers are doing with less, and unemployment will only go higher; with no spending there is no economic growth and we see what appears as deflation. Inflation is probably at about 10-12 per cent. (2) The greedy traders on Wall Street are sitting on $670 Trillion “high risk securities” called “derivatives”. If these contracts go bad, who buys them (remember-according to the Democrats in Congress and the President-there is no longer bailouts for “to big to fail”); we’ll see. (3) Without an economic recovery and some jobs the debt will soon require a Trillion dollars a year in interest. (4) America and the Dollar no longer dominate; China bought 47% of our debt in 2006, 20% in 2008 and only 5% in 2009. Last year, China bought a lot of oil from Saudi Arabia and for the first time ever Dollars were not used, same thing happened with Russia, Brazil, and India and on and on. Slowly at first, the Dollar will matter less and so will its value. How low will the Dollar be driven? If no one buys our Treasury Notes (debt), the interest on our debt is one Trillion a year, the debt is over 13 Trillion and unemployment stays at 10% (actual unemployment is 19%) or goes up the Dollar could drop 70-75%. Think about it, think about it hard; your retirement 401K of $100,000.00 would still be $100,000.00 on your statement but only purchase roughly $25,000.00 worth of goods or services. All of this could happen before the end of 2013, about a year into the Depression. (5) My grandchildren will be the first generation in over 100 years that will NOT have it better than the previous generation, what have we become? Everything we are facing today is the result of misguided and deceitful propaganda of collectivism and progressive policies of the last 24 years. In all fairness to Obama, he hasn’t done anything different that was not in place during the last 24 years, he simply has done in a short 18 months what three presidents did over 24 years and at an accelerated rate which has already destroyed our economic might and suppressed almost all individual rights. A study was done by some academics who studied 25 countries over a period of 800 years which found that EVERY TIME a nation’s debt went above 90% of GDP…the nation failed. Where is our nation’s (America) debt-to-GDP ratio today? It is above 90%. I don’t write these things carelessly, I try and choose my words with much thought and many times the truth is so ugly, so sad, so hopeless and so unbelievable that I don’t post what I wrote. Do not let anyone, not the Democrats, not the Republicans, not the President and his advisors (certainly not the Treasury or the FED), not your financial advisor, not Wall Street or anyone that is pushing the thought that everything is alright or getting better; folks, we are looking at 2017-2020 before the good times START to come back. I wrote as far back as late 2009 that the “Real Estate Bust” was far from over at a time when Obama and his people were telling us that things were picking up and that the recession was almost over, I stated then that “Commercial Real Estate” would bust and many banks would fail. Today on the news we learned that home sales fell 27% in July creating the biggest one month drop in history and the lowest we’ve been in 15 years. Is America too big to fail? Not anymore, and even if we were, who would bail us out?

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I’m still saying “Depression

By , August 10, 2010 7:50 pm

August 10, 2010Since I wrote the below nothing has changed for the good, we’ve had the Financial Bill passed which at best simply picks “winners and losers” on Wall Street and their financial giants and opens our daily financial transactions to the government. I have, however, underestimated the effect that Billions of Government Money has on the economy. I will revise my timeline for the upcoming Depression; I now believe that it will start in early 2011. By the end of 2011 or early 2012 we will be in a full blown depression. Keep in mind that if the government was listing all unemployed in their “unemployed rate” unemployment is actually close to 20 per cent. This upcoming “Depression” will probably last until 2020 no matter what party is in power. The damage this Congress and President have done to our economy will not repairable in four years. History teaches us that the Republicans rule during times of innovation and great economic upturns; the Democrats have normally ruled the country (with very few exceptions) during recessions, depressions and otherwise slow economic growth. After the “Great Depression” the Democrats controlled the House and the Senate for 40 years. This time history will NOT repeat itself because it is not Democrats in the Congress and the White House. What few REAL Democrats still in Congress have surrendered their vote and responsibility to the demands of the extreme radical progressives and the labor unions? The only question after the “mid-term elections” will be: did Congress bring down Obama or did Obama bring down the Democrats?    Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010We just lost 10 years; lost because as we come to the end of another decade it will be a decade of complete totally “negative” numbers in all areas of our economic health. I’ve been saying since May that we were heading towards a “depression” worst than the “Great Depression” of 1929. (Read all my writings on this series). As 2009 came to an end a few days ago the stock market actually ended positive and a nice 9 month upward rally; as I’ve stated more than once there is still nothing substantive about this market for it to maintain any meaningful growth. I stated back in May that upswings in the markets would be temporary, that another round of “real estate” foreclosures would precede a final “commercial real estate” bust which will result in many bank failures. I’m ready at this time to put a time table on this second round of foreclosures and the commercial real estate bust. This second blow to our economy will start in mid-march and run through September 2010. This round of real estate foreclosures, the failure of commercial real estate, office buildings and ensuing bank failures will be rapid and stunning. Now I’ve been saying that we were surely headed towards a depression since last May; now I believe that we are actually in the very beginning of that depression and would be surprised if we don’t start hearing the word “Depression” bounced around soon. Don’t be surprised if we finally hear Washington use the word “Depression” sometimes this summer. Let’s get back to the “Lost Decade”, the new millennium (2000-2009) ended with the DOW at somewhat over 10,000 (a rally of nine months) helped keep it there (but the DOW first reached the 10,000 mark in March of 1999), the S&P 500 index ended with a minus 9% and the NASDAQ took a negative to the tune of 40%; with numbers like that its fairly easy to call the last 10 years a “Lost Decade”. I also have some other numbers for you liberals out there that like to change history, manipulate data or simply spin fact with other data. During these 10 years (and particularly since Obama), our national debt has doubled, employment since Bush to Pelosi/Reid/Obama went from  4.9% to 10.2%, dollar has fallen, government stimulus efforts have failed and our leaders in Washington are doing things behind closed doors without regard to the wishes of the folks that elected them. [At the end of the “Great Depression” the 40’s ended with GDP growth of 72%, the 50’s end with GDP growth of 51.3%, the 60’s end with GDP growth of 53.1 and household net worth growth of 44%, 70’s end with GDP growth of 38.1 and household net worth growth of 28%, the 80’s saw GPD growth of 34.9% and household net worth of 42%, and the 90’s had GDP growth of 38.6% and household net worth of 58%. 2000’s end with household net worth of minus 4% and GDP only grew 17.8%] and we must remember that 14.6% was accomplished 2000-2006; the bottom line here is that things started going downhill when Pelosi/Reid  took control of Congress in late 2006 and intensified in severity during the last 12 months with Obama in office. Never in history has growth coming out of a decline (recession) been as weak as what we going through at this very moment and when you consider the Trillions in Government intervention it is more than sad and dismal, it is a disaster.

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part X

By , November 23, 2009 7:47 pm

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XTraditional economic theory tells us that the money supply may be used to stimulate an economy and obviously this Congress and Administration not only believes that but strongly support it to levels that they themselves would never agree to if the Conservatives were in power. I’m talking about this Administration pumping more than one Trillion dollars into the economy since taking office eleven months ago; this does not include the hundreds of Billions for bailouts and government takeover of the auto industry. As of lately Obama’s team has told us that these trillions have been a success, not so much evidenced by tangible results but rather by preventing matters to get worse; I guess we’ll never know if things would have been worse but what we do know  is that are no actual positive results from the government spending.  The federal balance sheet is about 137% over what it was at the end of 2008. Yes, Obama took the deficit from 928 billion to about two trillion in only eleven months. Economic common theory dictates that we should be approaching hyperinflation but that is not the case; in fact we have been deflationary since April of this year. I have stated various reasons for this throughout this series and will not repeat them here at this time. Suffice it to say at this time that wages and wage inflation are lower than should be expected if the economy was healing due to the stimulus trillions. The signs this administration points to as evidence that the economy is on a slow rebound and that the Recession is near its end are false and nothing in the economy with any substance supports the “end of the recession”. Any indication of earnings growth is due to expense reduction instead of sales growth. Prior to the financial meltdown job growth averaged about 1% over the last three years whereas now it’s falling by over 4%. At the time of this financial meltdown, Washington told us they had to do something or the “sky would fall”, it was the end of the world as we knew it and they had to do whatever it took to save capitalism; I have to ask in all honesty, who do you think is and has been in charge of solving this “global financial disaster”, the very people and institutions that got us into this mess. When government, business and Wall Street got in bed together last fall, it was the end of the “real economy” as we entered into a “government controlled” paper economy dominated by money that does exist as GDP. In all reality the economic “boom” (growth) of 2001-2007 was partially “paper economy”, it was false growth which infused itself into our GDP but it was “counterfeit”. It was based on debt spending and not on “real” purchasing power. As the “sub-prime” debt began to unravel our elected officials should have been able to see the real problem as debt, but instead of reigning in the debt Washington started spending and has not stopped for the last 18 months. The average high school dropout knows that you cannot spend yourself out of debt. I have been saying since May of this year that we are heading towards a “Depression” and I continue to stand behind those beliefs. All of the positive indicators concerning the economy are false (not lies, just false) because they are generated and driven by the paper economy and are not supported by jobs and GDP. Just today President Obama stated that the economy is starting to grow and the recession is just about over. Consider this: after nine months of a very positive DOW and Wall Street numbers, some positive comments from some businesses and a White House speaking positively of the economic health; people start to think that the recession is coming to an end, that very thought begins to renew confidence and some people start spending again which of course generates visible signs of recovery. The accepted understanding is that recessions last about two years, so it’s easy to accept that the recession is over and recovery is ahead. The only recovery at hand is in our heads, until the government gets out of the market place, the economy cannot and will not rebound. The beginning of the 20’s were recessionary/mild depression but only lasted about four years, there was no government intervention in the economy; interest rates were cut and the top tax rate of 70% was cut to 24% in three years which result in the “roaring twenties”. Those “roaring twenties” were very much like our economic boom of 2001-2007, extreme spending on debt; the result was the “Great Depression” which lasted over ten years. It lasted that long because of extreme government intervention in the economy and social fabric of society with its many entitlement programs. The recession may in fact be nearing its end but not to the tune of a recovery. I’ll say it again; there is nothing in the economy with any substance which would point to anything but a “depression” ahead.

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part IX

By , November 2, 2009 9:18 pm

Rising “Gold” prices used to mean that “people” feared inflation. There are three things wrong in today’s picture: (1) there has been no inflation since February this year, inflation then was less than one per cent (.24%). March saw deflation of .38% or another way of looking at it, inflation of minus .38%; the deflationary rate continue to rise through July and went down slightly in August and September. Still, though, we have been in deflation since February to date; I have asked then why “Gold” has risen approximately 50% during this period with no inflation? What is driving Gold prices up when there is no inflation, also keep in mind that rising Gold prices (due to inflation) would normally mean rising interest rates and falling Treasury Bonds and at this time the exact opposite is happening to government debt. (2) Rising “Gold” prices used to mean falling numbers on Wall Street, yet, the Stock Market has risen (until three days ago) more than 11% since June. I now have to ask, what is driving the Market up? (3) Government intervention in the financial markets to almost 29% of GDP is beyond comprehension, (during the “Great Depression government intervention was a mere 3.2% of GDP) and has confused established factors which determine the outcome of results in the financial markets and Wall Street. Folks, something has got to give, this trend will not continue. It is foolish to think that the flooding of the financial markets with government money will cure this chaotic economic disaster we are in. I stand by what I have been saying since the beginning of these series and that is that we are now entering a severe “Depression”. I wrote a while back in one of these posts not to be deceived with the up swings in the market; the market will fall before next summer. There is absolutely nothing with substance going on to sustain the market. So what is driving gold prices up, stock market and Treasury Bonds; I don’t know but would make an educated guess that a lot of it is simply assumptions and the belief that this administration will continue to pump money into the financial markets. Wake up folks, Barack Obama is not at all concerned about the middle class, about jobs or about the economy. “Tarp” and “Stimulus” money thus far has gone to those “big businesses” that supported him, to any and all “labor unions” and to “States” that are “blue” or obey his every wish. Beware of an unusual rise in the strength of the dollar; too many other economics are just waiting to offload their dollars. They are no longer looking at just the strength of the dollar but at the following troubling facts: (1) unemployment-up 50% since November 08, (2) GDP-down 25% since November 08, (3) Housing starts-down 10% since November 08, (4) Food Stamps-up 15% since November 08,  (5) mortgages underwater-up 66% since November 08, and (very important) DEFICIT-up 300%-YES- THREE HUNDRED PER CENT. For decades we have believed that Wall Street (Financial Markets-Industry) gave us an indication of the heartbeat of the economy and/or the future of economic success; that is no longer true or even believable. Our markets, our industries, our healthcare, our freedoms and lately even our “freedom of speech” are been manipulated, coerced, controlled and hidden in lies and deceits by Washington. It is no longer a “Free Market”; it is Washington and Wall Street, it is Washington and GM, it is Washington and GE, it is Washington and SEIU and at its best this government intervention with the markets and industry has created market distortion and there we have the ONLY REASON the Stock Market has gained since last March. The fall is around the corner. We need to put a face on this illegal game which is been played with our economy, we need to put a face on the attempt to silence any that would disagree, we need to put a face on the “real brown shirts” and folks that face is NOT THE CONSERVATIVE MOVEMENT.

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part VIII

By , October 20, 2009 6:10 pm

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part VIIIEven during the Great Depression the world turned to the United States for guidance and some answers to the financial woes of those times. For over 95 years the “Dollar” has been the dominant currency in the world and even to this day “oil” trades in dollar prices. Folks, that is fast coming to an end; there are forces at work from Russia, China, international financial experts and the (oil) Arab Gulf States to ditch the dollar as the recognized reserves currency. I stated in my last post the Dollar would collapse and that I believed it would be sooner than what we would want. Let me try and put some time frame on that statement. First I believe that the Euro and English Pound will totally fall before the dollar does and further believe that this will happen over the next 120 days. The dollar, though in a weakened state, will survive for a while due to the large amount of debt held by other nations. One thing remains very clear; America is no longer the leader of the Free World or the expressed definition of “Capitalism”. Why is this? For starters we have made the mistake of thinking that all other nations would blindly follow without questioning, and here is what the world sees and questions: an official national debt of $11.8 Trillion (this figure grew to $12 Trillion during the last three weeks), unfunded national obligations of $104 Trillion, an estimated (low figure) $9 Trillion in cumulative deficits over the next ten years and a very strong possibility of over $1 Trillion for “Health Care Reform”. All this adds up about $125, 8 Trillion; and we haven’t even considered the energy bill. If we were to assume that effective today there would be no new government spending, no new social programs, no new wars, no new disasters of nature, an immediate end to the current recession, no unforeseen economic disasters and the unemployment numbers dropped to below 5%; and the government was able to pay off the debt at one Billion dollars per day it would take the government 345 years to pay off the debt. Of course many of us know that the government will simply allow the dollar to be devalued so the debt may be paid in cheaper dollars. But the devalued dollar also affects our personal finances. For all of you hard core liberals that had that warm feeling running down your leg when Obama spoke consider this: since the democrats took control of Congress in 2006 the deficit has exploded an unbelievable 770 per cent and Reid/Pelosi/Obama are still looking for ways to spend more, that October had the lowest job openings since the year 2000, that from the day Reid/Pelosi took control of Congress the unemployment rate went up each month and since Obama took the White House unemployment went from 7.2% (Dec-2008) to 9.8% (Sept-2009), the 9.8% by the way is more than doubled what Bush has prior to the liberals control of Congress. Let me close by saying what I have been saying since part I of this series; we are entering a severe depression. I am saying this at a time when the Stock Market has held on to 10,000 for almost one week (and a seven month rally); but consider this: the Stock Market first reached the 10,000 in March 1999, WOW-some progress-back to where it was ten years ago. If you consider that the dollar has lost value (and falling) of almost 25% then we would have to accept the 10,000 as 750. The reality of the day is that the leadership of Reid/Pelosi/Obama is only giving us eternal debt, increased government spending (stimulus) and widening the “cultural of corruption” to the highest level this nation has ever seen. 

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part VII

By , October 16, 2009 8:56 pm

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part VIIBack in January of this year I wrote that this Administration would lie and take whatever steps necessary to cover the truth about the economy and thus far during the last ten months that is exactly what they have done. Nothing that has came out of the administration and Congress on the current economic health and the future (actual) cost of their (income distribution) “health care for all” and “energy” bills has stood the test of the CBO. The  biggest lie of this process to date is the Democratic Congress and White House blaming the GOP and Fox News for the failure of their agenda to pass; the truth: the democratic controlled Congress has not been able to get their own party to agree. We are all aware by now that this administration had no idea whatsoever what (if any) good would come of their $787 Billion “stimulus” bill. They were wrong on their expectations for the unemployment rate, they were wrong on their expectations of creating or saving “jobs” and we will soon see that they were wrong on the future strength of “bailed out” banks and auto companies. However they are not wrong on their plans for the remainder of the “stimulus” bill amount; here it is: as of September only $151 billion had been spent, they claim that $185 billion will be spent later this year. They have reserved $399 billion for next year (WOW-IRONIC isn’t that about the time that the democrats start running for “re-election”? Another $134 billion is to be spent by the end of 2011; isn’t that about the time that Obama starts his “re-election” process. What we have seen thus far is that the “stimulus” $787 billion has and will be wasted on political payback and the expansion of government intervention/influence over the economy and our daily lives. The President has surrounded himself with “inexperienced” advisors who at best are experimenting with the future of our Nation’s wealth and security. Mr. President, all your charismatic speeches and promises CANNOT change the outcome of your actions and the American People are waking up to the possibility that your inexperience prevents you from knowing the difference between “campaigning “and “governing. America, be not deceived, don’t let the recent rally in the stock market (a little over 10,000) give you comfort, I don’t see anything in the economy with any substance to back up the stock market numbers. Here it is: 70% of the U.S. economy is driven by growth in consumer borrowing and spending: in September; the FED reported that consumers slashed their borrowing in July by the largest amount on record, unemployment is the highest in 26 years, the decline of $21.6 billion in consumer credit was seven times higher than expected and if this decline in borrowing and spending continues we will very soon see corporate earnings decline. I’ve said this twice in other parts of these series and here it is again, over the next 90 days look for bad signs/news on “commercial real estate” and “bank failures” I’m not an economist or Wall Street theorist so I cannot fully explain the “10,000” wall street number but I do fully understand that there is nothing in our economy with any substance and everything out of the White House is deceitful at best. Actually the only possible bright future that Wall Street might have in the near future is “commodities”; our currency is probably going to collapse completely and it might not be as far away as we might want it to be. I’ve said this in every post of this series and I still believe it: we are probably seeing the beginning of a very long and severe economic depression. Conservatives, Republicans, faith-based and middle-class Americans of any party, ethnic back-ground, age and social status WAKE UP and GET INVOLVED: IT IS NOT EVIL, IT IS NOT GREED and IT IS NOT WRONG TO WANT TO ACHIEVE RICHES, TO DESIRE INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM, TO WORK HARD FOR SUCCESS AND MORAL FREEDOM FROM “STATE” INTERVENTION. IT IS NEITHER RACISM NOR BIGOTRY TO DISPISE THOSE THAT WANT GOVERNMENT TO TAKE FROM US AND GIVE TO THEM SO THEY WON’T HAVE TO WORK.  

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