Time for someone, the most valuable thing you have

By Admin, January 27, 2010 6:29 pm

 

 To all my family & friends I want to 
THANK  YOU  FOR  YOUR TIME.
ONCE YOU  READ THIS
 YOU  WILL  UNDERSTAND!


A young man learns what’s most important in life from the guy next door.


It had been some time since Jack had seen the old man.. College, girls, career, and life itself got in the way. In fact, Jack moved clear across the country in pursuit of his dreams.


There, in the rush of his busy life, Jack had little time to think about the past and often no time to spend with his wife and son. He was working on his future, and nothing could stop him.


Over the phone, his mother told him, “Mr. Belser died last night. The funeral is Wednesday.” Memories flashed through his mind like an old newsreel as he sat quietly remembering his childhood days.


“Jack, did you hear me?”


“Oh, sorry, Mom. Yes, I heard you. It’s been so long since I thought of him. I’m sorry, but I honestly thought he died years ago,” Jack said.


“Well, he didn’t forget you. Every time I saw him he’d ask how you were doing. He’d reminisce about the many days you spent over ‘his side of the fence’ as he put it,” Mom told him.


“I loved that old house he lived in,” Jack said.


“You know, Jack, after your father died, Mr. Belser stepped in to make sure you had a man’s influence in your life,” she said


“He’s the one who taught me carpentry,” he said. “I wouldn’t be in this business if it weren’t for him. He spent a lot of time teaching me things he thought were important…Mom, I’ll be there for the funeral,” Jack said.


As busy as he was, he kept his word. Jack caught the next flight to his hometown. Mr. Belser’s funeral was small and uneventful. He had no children of his own, and most of his relatives had passed away.


The night before he had to return home, Jack and his Mom stopped by to see the old house next door one more time.


Standing in the doorway, Jack paused for a moment. It was like crossing over into another dimension, a leap through space and time The house was exactly as he remembered. Every step held memories. Every picture, every piece of furniture….Jack stopped suddenly..


“What’s wrong, Jack?” his Mom asked.


“The box is gone,” he said


“What box?” Mom asked.


“There was a small gold box that he kept locked on top of his desk. I must have asked him a thousand times what was inside. All he’d ever tell me was ‘the thing I value most,’” Jack said.


It was gone. Everything about the house was exactly how Jack remembered it, except for the box. He figured someone from the Belser family had taken it.


“Now I’ll never know what was so valuable to him,” Jack said. “I better get some sleep. I have an early flight home, Mom.”


It had been about two weeks since Mr. Belser died Returning home from work one day Jack discovered a note in his mailbox. “Signature required on a package. No one at home. Please stop by the main post office within the next three days,” the note read.
Early the next day Jack retrieved the package. The small box was old and looked like it had been mailed a hundred years ago. The handwriting was difficult to read, but the return address caught his attention. “Mr. Harold Belser” it read. Jack took the box out to his car and ripped open the package. There inside was the gold box and an envelope. Jack’s hands shook as he read the note inside.


“Upon my death, please forward this box and its contents to Jack Bennett. It’s the thing I valued most in my life.” A small key was taped to the letter. His heart racing, as tears filling his eyes, Jack carefully unlocked the box. There inside he found a beautiful gold pocket watch.


Running his fingers slowly over the finely etched casing, he unlatched the cover.. Inside he found these words engraved:


“Jack, Thanks for your time! -Harold Belser.”


“The thing he valued most was…my time”


Jack held the watch for a few minutes, then called his office and cleared his appointments for the next two days. “Why?” Janet, his assistant asked.


“I need some time to spend with my son,” he said.


“Oh, by the way, Janet, thanks for your time!”


“Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take but by the moments that take our breath away,”


Think about this. You may not realize it, but it’s 100% true.


1. At least 15 people in this world love you in some way.


2 A smile from you can bring happiness to anyone, even if they don’t like you.


3 Every night, SOMEONE thinks about you before they go to sleep.


4.. You mean the world to someone.


5. If not for you, someone may not be living.


6. You are special and unique.


7. When you think you have no chance of getting what you want, you probably won’t get it, but if you trust God to do what’s best, and wait on His time, sooner or later, you will get it or something better.


8. When you make the biggest mistake ever, something good can still come from it.


9. When you think the world has turned its back on you, take a look: you most likely turned your back on the world.


10. Someone that you don’t even know exists loves you.


11.. Always remember the compliments you received.. Forget about the rude remarks.


12 . Always tell someone how you feel about them; you will feel much better when they know and you’ll both be happy .


13. If you have a great friend, take the time to let them know that they are great.


Send this letter to all the people you care about, if you do so, you will certainly brighten someone’s day and might change their perspective on life…for the better.


To everyone I sent this to 
Thanks for your time

We can only give away to others, what we have inside ourselves.

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Bright side of getting old

You young people go ahead and laugh you too will be there before you know it.

 

 



An elderly gentleman….

Had serious hearing problems for a number of years. He went to the doctor and the doctor was able to have him fitted for a set of hearing aids that allowed the gentleman to hear 100% 
The elderly gentleman went back in a month to the doctor and the doctor said, ‘Your hearing is perfect.. Your family must be really pleased that you can hear again.’

The gentleman replied, ‘Oh, I haven’t told my family yet.

I just sit around and listen to the conversations. I’ve changed my will three times!’




Two elderly gentlemen from a retirement center were sitting on a bench under a tree when one turns to the other and says: ‘Slim, I’m 83 years old now and I’m just full of aches and pains. I know you’re about my age. How do you feel?’ 
Slim says, ‘I feel just like a newborn baby.’
 

‘Really!? Like a newborn baby!?’

‘Yep. No hair, no teeth, and I think I just wet my pants.’




An elderly couple had dinner at another couple’s house, and after eating, the wives left the table and went into the kitchen. 
The two gentlemen were talking, and one said, ‘Last night we went out to a new restaurant and it was really great.. I would recommend it very highly.’
 
The other man said, ‘What is the name of the restaurant?’
 
The first man thought and thought and finally said, ‘What is the name of that flower you give to someone you love?
 
You know…. The one that’s red and has thorns.’
 
‘Do you mean a rose?’

‘Yes, that’s the one,’ replied the man. He then turned towards the kitchen and yelled, ‘Rose, what’s the name of that restaurant we went to last night?’

Hospital regulations require a wheel chair for patients being discharged. However, while working as a student nurse, I found one elderly gentleman already dressed and sitting on the bed with a suitcase at his feet, who insisted he didn’t need my help to leave the hospital. 
After a chat about rules being rules, he reluctantly let me wheel him to the elevator.
 
On the way down I asked him if his wife was meeting him.

‘I don’t know,’ he said. ‘She’s still upstairs in the bathroom changing out of her hospital gown..’




Couple in their nineties are both having problems remembering things. During a checkup, the doctor tells them that they’re physically okay, but they might want to start writing things down to help them remember .. 
Later that night, while watching TV, the old man gets up from his chair. ‘Want anything while I’m in the kitchen?’ he asks.
 
‘Will you get me a bowl of ice cream?’
 
‘Sure..’
 
‘Don’t you think you should write it down so you can remember it?’ she asks.
 
‘No, I can remember it.’
 
‘Well, I’d like some strawberries on top, too. Maybe you should write it down, so
 not to forget it?’ 
He says, ‘I can remember that. You want a bowl of ice cream with strawberries.’
 
‘I’d also like whipped cream. I’m certain you’ll forget that, write it down?’ she asks.
 
Irritated, he says, ‘I don’t need to write it down, I can remember it! Ice cream with strawberries and whipped cream - I got it, for goodness sake!’
 
Then he toddles into the kitchen. After about 20 minutes,
 The old man returns from the kitchen and hands his wife a plate of bacon and eggs.. She stares at the plate for a moment.

‘Where’s my toast ?’



A senior citizen said to his eighty-year old buddy: 
‘So I hear you’re getting married?’
 
‘Yep!’
 
‘Do I know her?’
 
‘Nope!’
 
‘This woman, is she good looking?’
 
‘Not really.’
 
‘Is she a good cook?’
 
‘Naw, she can’t cook too well.’
 
‘Does she have lots of money?’
 
‘Nope! Poor as a church mouse.’
 
‘Why in the world do you want to marry her then?’

‘Because she can still drive!’



Three old guys are out walking. 
First one says, ‘Windy, isn’t it?’
 
Second one says, ‘No, it’s Thursday!’

Third one says, ‘So am I. Let’s go get a beer..’



Morris, an 82 year-old man, went to the doctor to get a physical. 
A few days later, the doctor saw Morris walking down the street with a gorgeous young woman on his arm.
 
A couple of days later, the doctor spoke to Morris and said, ‘You’re really doing great, aren’t you?’
 
Morris replied, ‘Just doing what you said, Doc: ‘Get a hot mamma and be cheerful.”

The doctor said, ‘I didn’t say that… I said, ‘You’ve got a heart murmur; be careful.’



 

                     
Now
 , before you ‘forget’, send them on to some other folks you know who could use a good laugh !!  

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BANK FAILURES AHead

By Admin, January 18, 2010 4:26 pm

YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON’T GET FROM WALL STREET

 

[«] Money and Markets 2010 Archive View This Issue On Our Website [»]

200 Bank Failures Expected in 2010
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Dear Customer,

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Washington has so thoroughly botched its supervision of the banking industry that 200 banks are likely to fail this year — easily surpassing last year’s 140 bank failures … inevitably involving the greatest bank losses in history … and already costing the FDIC ten times more than the great S&L and banking crisis of the 1980s did.

I am not basing these conclusions on conjecture. They come straight from official sources. Specifically …

In her testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on Thursday, FDIC Chairman Blair attacked the Fed under Greenspan for causing the housing bubble and subsequent debt crisis with its highly stimulative, low interest rate policy of the 2000s.

She slammed virtually all of Washington for allowing banks to establish a huge, high-risk “shadow banking system.”

And she made it abundantly clear that, without sweeping, far-reaching reforms, we risk another devastating debt crisis.

Each of her conclusions is abundantly obvious and thoroughly documented. What she did not mention, however, are the following equally obvious facts:

Obvious fact #1. The Fed under Bernanke is now pursuing an even more stimulative, lower interest rate policy than it did under Greenspan, threatening to create even larger bubbles and more devastating busts …

Obvious fact #2. In just the last two years, between bank bailouts and easy money, Washington has done more to encourage the growth of the shadow banking system than in all previous years combined, and …

Obvious fact #3. Despite all the talk and testimony, the nation’s powerful banking lobby virtually guarantees that, in the absence of another Wall Street meltdown, the chance of sweeping reforms is virtually nil.

So here’s America’s financial dilemma in a nutshell:

Without sweeping reforms, the nation is doomed to repeat history with another debt disaster. But without another debt disaster, the nation’s political will for sweeping reforms is dead or dying.

In the meantime, the aftershocks of the 2008 debt crisis are getting worse, as the latest news clearly illustrates …

171 actual total failures: In addition to the 140 banks and S&Ls that failed in 2009, 31 credit unions went under, bringing the total tally to 171.

Worse than the 1980s: If you’re among those who think today’s banking crisis isn’t nearly as bad as the great S&L and banking crisis of the 1980s, think again. The average bank failing today is six times larger than it was back then, producing far greater losses. Moreover, each bank failure is costing the FDIC about TEN times more than it did in the 1980s crisis, according to the Meridian Group of Seattle. As a result …

Worst FDIC losses of all time: The FDIC lost more money in bank failures ($36 billion) than it lost in the ENTIRE five-year banking crisis from 1987 through 1992 ($29.6 billion). And in 2010, with the number of failures likely to increase, the losses will be even larger.

Big banks still losing billions with consumers: Until last week, the consensus opinion on Wall Street was that the troubles at the BIG banks were over; that to close this chapter in history, the only task remaining was a mop-up operation at smaller regional and community banks around the country.

That theory was shattered on Friday when JPMorgan Chase revealed it was forced to add $1.5 billion to its consumer loan loss reserves. The big problem: When it took over Washington Mutual last year, the biggest failed S&L of all time, it inherited a cesspool of mortgages that are now going bad at an accelerating pace. Other big consumer banks — like Citigroup and Bank of America — likely face similar woes.

The trading profits of big investment banks are a bubble: What most Wall Street bank analysts still don’t seem to recognize is that the giant trading profits they’ve been so enthusiastic about are generated by the same low-interest Fed policy that created the housing bubble — and is now in the process of creating MORE bubbles.

Without the Fed’s largesse, without the low-cost financing, and without the big risk appetite it generates, most of the big bank trading profits would have been impossible. More to the point: Just as soon as the Fed finally executes an exit plan, the bulk of those profits are likely to turn to losses.

What To Do

First and foremost, do not let up your guard when it comes to keeping your money safe. Yes, I know. With all the talk of the “end” to the crisis and Treasury bills paying virtually nothing, it’s tempting to venture away from safe harbors.

But how much more yield can you get by doing so? If you switch from Treasury bills to bank CDs, for example, the most you can gain is a small fraction of a percent. And if you switch from bank CDs to low-rated corporate debt, the extra yield you get is even less attractive.

In sum …

At this early stage so soon after the worst debt crisis since the Great Depression, the TRUE RISK of putting your money in higher yielding savings vehicles is still very high. Nevertheless, banks and other borrowers are asking you to take that risk WITHOUT paying you more than pennies for it.

My recommendation: Tell them to go fly a kite!

For your keep-safe funds, use strictly short-term Treasuries or equivalent.

Second, if you do other business with a bank or if you still want to keep some part of your savings in bank CDs … at least be sure to avoid the banks most likely to fail and stick with the ones most likely to survive. (For the latest Weiss Lists of the weakest banks and S&Ls, click here. For the strongest, click here.)

Third, bear in mind that, when it comes to your investment decision-making, TIMING is everything.

Last year, the stepped-up pace of bank failures did not derail the weak-but-continuing recovery in the U.S. economy. And for now, that’s bound to remain the case. As soon as we see signs that’s about to change, we’ll do our best to alert you. Until then, we stick with our current posture: Continue to invest, but do so with great caution.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

 



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Health Care for all? /Or control all

By Admin, January 13, 2010 6:07 pm

 I wrote the following back on 15 July 2009; did I ever hit right on target. that was written before the tea party, before Glen Beck did his three month specials on government control of all and certaintly before our nation would see that the only thing preventing the passage of “Health Care Reform” is in fact the Democrats themselves. the liberal Democrats control the House, the Senate and the White House, so why can’t they pass “health Care Reform”. Wake up liberals, most of us are not as stupid as you think we are.

Health Care for all? /Or control allDid you hear our President and the Democrats in Congress speak of the urgency to pass the Health Care Bill “NOW”? Why don’t they want the bill read, researched, debated, look at all alternatives and then pass a Bi-Partisan Bill that will actually serve the American People.? Because it is not about health care, it is about control, control and total control.This Messiah already owns the credit markets, big insurance companies are forced to bow at his feet and not allowed to pay back the “bail-out” billions without some government controls, he also owns the financial institutions, big auto companies and has the labor unions as his personal Gestapo to ensure that only those they want employed are employed. He owns the Congress as they have all but surrendered the Legislative Branch to his wishes. But that is not enough; he needs total control of all of our lives under his progressive ideas of “collectivism” rights instead of individual rights. Consider this: The liberals claim that it is immoral to have 40 million Americans uninsured; but if you take the 20 million illegal immigrants out of the picture, you only have 20 million Americans uninsured; of these 20 million uninsured: 43% are voluntarily uninsured for some reason or another (I’m sure the cost had something to do with it), 18% declined Medicare and 30% who were offered insurance by employers, state aid or other form of medical assistance declined; I don’t know if the 30% is part of the 43%, the point is that of the 20 million Americans uninsured only 8 million 800 hundred thousand are actually in need of government sponsored health care. To fully understand the lies coming out of this Congress and White House concerning Health Care read all my previous posts on “Uninsured”The Democrats and this President don’t care about the middle class, the uninsured, the unemployed, small business owners, minorities and anyone that would dare say God or Jesus in a public place. All you have to do is look at their “Cap and Trade” energy bill which only rewards big rich companies and big rich people like Al Gore.

Let’s look at Matt 13:17. And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the Beast, or the number of his name. 

I wrote back in January that the fastest and easiest way for a “one man rule” (666) was the financial collapse of the world markets (read my thoughts on this in New World Order).

No, I’m not saying that Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ; he will never be that important or big, what I’m saying is, the only way this great nation of ours would ever surrender to another power is when we no longer have any individual rights. If Barack Obama controls everything, and he will if he gets his Health Care bill and Energy bill, then the only thing for the man to do is suspense our Constitution and thumb his nose at the Supreme Court. 

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CHRISTIANS”"”"WAKE UP


> THIS IS WHAT WE ARE LETTING THIS AMERICA TURN IN TO BY JUST TURNING THE OTHER CHEEK
>
> *THE SCHOOL IS IN JENKS , OK*
> Today for the first time in 15 years of reportedly outstanding subbing on my part in one of our nation’s most outstanding public school systems, I was summoned to the Sub Office to be called on the carpet concerning some “bad reports” about me. One report was that I had closed my eyes during the early morning “moment of silence”. Now
> understand, I had not bowed my head or moved my lips; I had merely closed my eyes for a brief moment. The “terrible” problem with this is that I had possibly
> given the impression of praying in front of students. *
>
> *I read a news article in the local paper last month wherePresident Obama lit candles and bowed down to a Hindu priest in our White House which is also a government facility, but I, a Christian, cannot close my eyes during a moment of silence in the public schools.*
>
> *I was also told that even if a student point blank asks me aboutGod or my personal faith, I am not to answer that question. I am to respond, “What I think or believe does not matter. What do youthink or believe?” *
>
> *Recently, I was in a classroom where I was supposed to teach the following: “Humans came into existence 200,000 years ago in two different forms, one of which died out.” I did everything that the teacher said for that day, as I always do, except teach that. I said nothing about it to the students, but I left the teacher a very gracious note explaining
> that I personally could not teach that but that I understood that she had to. The school immediately took me off their list of preferred subs, which has led to no jobs for me from that school coming up in the assignment system, which has led to some days without employment for me. (I ordinarily sub every school day.) Ironically the leadership in that school is especially and strongly Christian!!! And this is in the Tulsa , OK , region- which is the buckle of the Bible Belt! *
>
> *The environment in the school system that I sub in has grown increasingly liberal during my tenure, and never have I seen the ”F” word so rampant in the student population as it is this school year. *
>
> *No matter what you may occasionally hear about the sad state ofour public schools, you simply have to be in our nation’s public schools to be really awakened to the dire necessity of prayer for the  schools and prayer for God to shake the Christian leaders who are in these schools. We> have an entire generation of U.S. citizens who are
> systematically being taught anti-Christ agendas and philosophy, and without intervention from God, our blessed nation has no future! *
>
> *Our weak, compromised, and apathetic churches are no match against the powers of darkness that have been unleashed in this nation. A report that I
> read at the turn of this century said that our churches are now only getting 3% of the nation’s youth saved. Nature abhors a vacuum so, meanwhile, our public schools are faithfully and unrelentingly getting multitudes of our youth converted to darkness. *
>
> Some folks passing through Texarkana last week noted signs in people’s yards that said, ” America , prayer is our only hope” with 2 Chron. 7:14 underneath. We certainly need God’s help!
>
> I have no idea who started this, but I certainly agree with this e-mail. I heard a preacher on TV who said if we pray for our nation that things will turn around
>
> After a day of contemplation and soul searching, I have decided to reach out to my friends and relatives and ask you to do something that has been
> troubling me for a long time.
>
> Our nation is/has been on the slippery slope for a long time. I> you look> around you will find corruption, greed, moral decay, and a steady move away from the things that made us great. The principles upon which this nation was founded are no longer our backbone. *
>
> *However, we can reverse this trend.
>
> JUST DO IT
>
> 2 Chron. 7:14
> In God’s word He states, “If my people who are called by my name> will humble> themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked> ways, then I
> will hear from heaven and will forgive their sin and heal theirLand.”
>
> I am convinced that we must pray for our nation and its leaders and ask for forgiveness. So I ask you to join me in this plea to our Lord.
>
> Would you please send this to people in your address book (send
> it to all o> them); ask them to pray EVERYDAY.
>
> 25 to only the 5th power is 9,765,625 people. IMAGINE if each person
> reaches TEN others…or all TWENTY FIVE!
>
> If you do and they comply, we will lift up millions and millions of prayers a day to our Creator. He will hear us and in faith will answer.
>
> Let me just add a quote from Ronald Reagan “If we ever forget that we are one nation under God, then we will be a nation gone under.” I truly believe this is why the United States of America is in the shape we are in today.
> Most people have forgotten that we are one nation under God! Let us as Christians stand up and remind people of this. *
>
> *Have a blessed day
>
> IN GOD WE TRUST! *
>

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Subject: CELL Phone DO Not CALL LIST

By Admin, January 7, 2010 7:09 pm

Subject: CELL Phone DO Not CALL LIST

 

In case you didn’t know,

  

REMEMBER:  Cell Phone Numbers Go Public this month.

 

REMINDER…..  all cell phone numbers are being released to telemarketing companies and you will start to receive sales calls.

 

…. YOU WILL BE CHARGED FOR THESE CALLS

 

To prevent this, call the following number from your cell phone:    888-382-1222.

It is the National DO NOT CALL list. It will only take a minute of your time… It blocks your number for five (5) years. You must call from the cell phone number you want to have blocked. You cannot call from a different phone number.

 

HELP OTHERS BY PASSING THIS ON .. It takes about 20 seconds.  

 

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Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010

By Admin, January 5, 2010 8:56 pm

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010We just lost 10 years; lost because as we come to the end of another decade it will be a decade of complete totally “negative” numbers in all areas of our economic health. I’ve been saying since May that we were heading towards a “depression” worst than the “Great Depression” of 1929. (Read all my writings on this series). As 2009 came to an end a few days ago the stock market actually ended positive and a nice 9 month upward rally; as I’ve stated more than once there is still nothing substantive about this market for it to maintain any meaningful growth. I stated back in May that upswings in the markets would be temporary, that another round of “real estate” foreclosures would precede a final “commercial real estate” bust which will result in many bank failures. I’m ready at this time to put a time table on this second round of foreclosures and the commercial real estate bust. This second blow to our economy will start in mid-march and run through September 2010. This round of real estate foreclosures, the failure of commercial real estate, office buildings and ensuing bank failures will be rapid and stunning. Now I’ve been saying that we were surely headed towards a depression since last May; now I believe that we are actually in the very beginning of that depression and would be surprised if we don’t start hearing the word “Depression” bounced around soon. Don’t be surprised if we finally hear Washington use the word “Depression” sometimes this summer. Let’s get back to the “Lost Decade”, the new millennium (2000-2009) ended with the DOW at somewhat over 10,000 (a rally of nine months) helped keep it there (but the DOW first reached the 10,000 mark in March of 1999), the S&P 500 index ended with a minus 9% and the NASDAQ took a negative to the tune of 40%; with numbers like that its fairly easy to call the last 10 years a “Lost Decade”. I also have some other numbers for you liberals out there that like to change history, manipulate data or simply spin fact with other data. During these 10 years (and particularly since Obama), our national debt has doubled, employment since Bush to Pelosi/Reid/Obama went from  4.9% to 10.2%, dollar has fallen, government stimulus efforts have failed and our leaders in Washington are doing things behind closed doors without regard to the wishes of the folks that elected them. [At the end of the “Great Depression” the 40’s ended with GDP growth of 72%, the 50’s end with GDP growth of 51.3%, the 60’s end with GDP growth of 53.1 and household net worth growth of 44%, 70’s end with GDP growth of 38.1 and household net worth growth of 28%, the 80’s saw GPD growth of 34.9% and household net worth of 42%, and the 90’s had GDP growth of 38.6% and household net worth of 58%. 2000’s end with household net worth of minus 4% and GDP only grew 17.8%] and we must remember that 14.6% was accomplished 2000-2006; the bottom line here is that things started going downhill when Pelosi/Reid  took control of Congress in late 2006 and intensified in severity during the last 12 months with Obama in office. Never in history has growth coming out of a decline (recession) been as weak as what we going through at this very moment and when you consider the Trillions in Government intervention it is more than sad and dismal, it is a disaster.

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Economy not getting well in 2010

By Admin, January 4, 2010 12:35 pm

MONEYANDMARKETS»


Monday, January 4, 2010

 

[«] Money and Markets 2009 Archive View This Issue On Our Website [»]

Advance warning:
Danger of bond market collapse!
by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Dear Subscriber,

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

If you think 2010 is going to bring investors a carefree, nonstop ride to glory, think again!

Profit opportunities abound, and we intend to be among the first to lead you to them.

But we’re also here to give you advance warnings of threats that can sneak up from behind and catch you by surprise.

Case in point: The danger that Treasury bonds will fall sharply in price, drive up long-term interest rates and ultimately threaten the U.S. recovery.

This is an advance warning because long-term interest rates are still very low. Even if they rise from here, their impact on the economy may not be felt right away.

But if you hold medium- or long-term bonds, you need to get out NOW — before you suffer further damage.

10 year and 30 year charts

Using nearest futures contracts as the metric, the price of a 10-year Treasury note tumbled from a high of 130.09 on December 18, 2008, to a low of 114.98 on June 18, 2009.

It then spent most of the year’s second half trying to recover from that debacle.

But just in the last few days of December, while most traders were away or asleep, a renewed plunge in Treasury-note prices erased nearly all the gains since June … threatening new lows, paving the way for a new plunge in prices, and driving a new surge in 10-year yields.

The price decline in 30-year Treasury-bond prices has been even more dramatic: An historic 27-point plunge from 142.62 on December 19, 2008, to 115.67 on June 18, 2009 … followed by a feeble recovery … and now, as with Treasury notes, a new, ominous price decline and surge in yields.

The impact on consumers is unmistakable:

Even while Washington seeks to flood mortgage markets with easy money, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates are moving sharply higher. And even as the Fed does everything in its power to get Americans to spend, U.S. banks are tightening their credit standards and slapping on new fees.

The causes of the bond market troubles are equally obvious:

We have …

  1. The biggest and most permanent federal budget deficits in our country’s history — $1.4 trillion of red ink in fiscal 2009 and AT LEAST another $7 trillion in deficits over the next decade.
  2. The biggest government borrowing binge of all time. Just in the last week of the year, the Treasury Department borrowed $44 billion with the sale of 2-year notes, $42 billion with 5-year notes and $32 billion in 7-year notes, for a total of $118 billion — a new record. Expect more of the same throughout 2010.
  3. The most inflationary monetary policy of all time, including a sudden, record-smashing DOUBLING of the nation’s monetary base in 2009.

And most ominous of all …

A Government Gone Wild!

This is not a matter of personal opinion or political philosophy. Regardless of your particular persuasion, you cannot deny the folly of Washington’s escapades …

  • The U.S. Federal Reserve has tossed its traditional rulebook in the trashcan. It has opened its credit window to brokerage firms, guaranteed trillions of junk credit of the private sector and bought up over a trillion in junk mortgages.
  • The U.S. Treasury has bailed out the nation’s largest and most outrageous risk-takers — not only institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Citigroup, Bank of America, AIG, and GM … but, indirectly, also high-rollers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.
  • And now, adding madness to insanity, the U.S. government is opening the gauntlet to even more of the same:

On Christmas Eve, the Treasury Department announced it will remove the limits on any and all aid to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the next three years.

The intended consequence was to allay investor concerns that these two mortgage giants will exhaust the available government bailout funds.

Treasury officials know that an estimated 3.9 MILLION U.S. homes went into foreclosure last year … and, they know that they can expect more of the same in 2010. So they’re literally pulling all stops to funnel funds into this market.

But the unintended consequences are potentially greater concerns:

  • An even deeper hole in the federal budget,
  • An even larger avalanche of Treasury borrowings,
  • Still lower bond prices, and, inevitably,
  • Far higher long-term interest rates.

Most Financial Institutions Highly Exposed

If America’s financial institutions were prepared for higher interest rates, this might not be quite as serious. But as I demonstrated here two weeks ago, nothing could be further from the facts. (See “Three Government Reports Reveal New Looming Risk.”)

Specifically …

  • The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reports that many more banks are now taking on higher levels of interest-rate risk, leaving them overly exposed to rate rises at precisely the wrong time. They’re stuffing their portfolios with long-term mortgages, which invariably fall in value when interest rates rise. And they’re relying too heavily on short-term financing, which will inevitably be more expensive when rates rise.
  • The U.S. Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reports that America’s largest banks now hold $172.5 TRILLION in derivatives that are directly linked to interest rates, the most of all time. That’s over THIRTEEN times the amount they hold in credit derivatives — a primary cause of the 2008-2009 debt crisis.
  • And the Federal Reserve reports that banks aren’t the only ones vulnerable to higher interest rates. Also exposed are credit unions, life and health insurance companies, plus property and casualty insurers.

Bottom line: Don’t march into 2010 as if the word “risk” had been stricken from investment lexicon like four-letter words in a grammar school dictionary.

It hasn’t been; it’s still there. And it mandates continuing caution — to buy excellent values … with strong fundamentals … prudent risk management … and plenty of cash in reserve.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

 



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