Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010

By , January 5, 2010 8:56 pm

Now and then//1929, 2009//the coming Depression. Part XI//January 5, 2010We just lost 10 years; lost because as we come to the end of another decade it will be a decade of complete totally “negative” numbers in all areas of our economic health. I’ve been saying since May that we were heading towards a “depression” worst than the “Great Depression” of 1929. (Read all my writings on this series). As 2009 came to an end a few days ago the stock market actually ended positive and a nice 9 month upward rally; as I’ve stated more than once there is still nothing substantive about this market for it to maintain any meaningful growth. I stated back in May that upswings in the markets would be temporary, that another round of “real estate” foreclosures would precede a final “commercial real estate” bust which will result in many bank failures. I’m ready at this time to put a time table on this second round of foreclosures and the commercial real estate bust. This second blow to our economy will start in mid-march and run through September 2010. This round of real estate foreclosures, the failure of commercial real estate, office buildings and ensuing bank failures will be rapid and stunning. Now I’ve been saying that we were surely headed towards a depression since last May; now I believe that we are actually in the very beginning of that depression and would be surprised if we don’t start hearing the word “Depression” bounced around soon. Don’t be surprised if we finally hear Washington use the word “Depression” sometimes this summer. Let’s get back to the “Lost Decade”, the new millennium (2000-2009) ended with the DOW at somewhat over 10,000 (a rally of nine months) helped keep it there (but the DOW first reached the 10,000 mark in March of 1999), the S&P 500 index ended with a minus 9% and the NASDAQ took a negative to the tune of 40%; with numbers like that its fairly easy to call the last 10 years a “Lost Decade”. I also have some other numbers for you liberals out there that like to change history, manipulate data or simply spin fact with other data. During these 10 years (and particularly since Obama), our national debt has doubled, employment since Bush to Pelosi/Reid/Obama went from  4.9% to 10.2%, dollar has fallen, government stimulus efforts have failed and our leaders in Washington are doing things behind closed doors without regard to the wishes of the folks that elected them. [At the end of the “Great Depression” the 40’s ended with GDP growth of 72%, the 50’s end with GDP growth of 51.3%, the 60’s end with GDP growth of 53.1 and household net worth growth of 44%, 70’s end with GDP growth of 38.1 and household net worth growth of 28%, the 80’s saw GPD growth of 34.9% and household net worth of 42%, and the 90’s had GDP growth of 38.6% and household net worth of 58%. 2000’s end with household net worth of minus 4% and GDP only grew 17.8%] and we must remember that 14.6% was accomplished 2000-2006; the bottom line here is that things started going downhill when Pelosi/Reid  took control of Congress in late 2006 and intensified in severity during the last 12 months with Obama in office. Never in history has growth coming out of a decline (recession) been as weak as what we going through at this very moment and when you consider the Trillions in Government intervention it is more than sad and dismal, it is a disaster.

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